Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 11?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 11?
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$55,813 交易量
$55,813 交易量
2026-04-11
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$55,813 交易量
$55,813 交易量
2026-04-11
5°C or below
$1,974 交易量
No
6°C
$3,204 交易量
No
7°C
$1,595 交易量
No
8°C
$3,887 交易量
No
9°C
$3,733 交易量
No
10°C
$6,664 交易量
No
11°C
$5,345 交易量
No
12°C
$6,817 交易量
Yes
13°C
$9,007 交易量
No
14°C
$5,666 交易量
No
15°C or higher
$7,921 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
交易量
$55,813结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$55,813结束日期
2026-04-11市场开放时间
Apr 7, 2026, 12:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 11 at 12°C, driven by official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirming peak readings around midday under persistent overcast skies and cool northerly winds averaging 10-12 km/h. Hourly data from key stations like Istanbul Airport show temperatures stabilizing near 10-12°C, with cloud cover suppressing solar heating despite a UV index up to 6—well below the April climatological average high of 16°C influenced by typical Black Sea moderation. Recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converged on this 10-13°C range over the past 48 hours following a low-pressure trough exit. With sunset past and no late clearing observed, realistic challenges like sudden wind shifts or measurement revisions are minimal, pending final MGM daily summary.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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