Oklahoma City Thunder command 36.5% implied probability as defending champions and clear frontrunners, anchored by their league-best record near 56-15 atop power rankings and Western Conference standings, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading in win shares despite minor injury management for Jalen Williams over the past month. San Antonio Spurs trail at 17.3% after surging to the No. 2 West seed around 53-18, showcasing Victor Wembanyama's two-way dominance in a core-focused roster unchanged since the February trade deadline. Boston Celtics sit third at 11.9% as Eastern playoff locks despite Nikola Vucevic's fractured finger sidelining the deadline acquisition for weeks, while Detroit Pistons' surprise 54-20 East lead lags in odds due to limited postseason experience versus Knicks, Cavaliers, and Nuggets' proven paths.