Spain's Euro 2024 triumph, Olympic men's soccer gold medal via 5-3 extra-time win over France, and perfect UEFA Nations League start—capped by a 4-1 rout of Switzerland on October 11—have propelled them to a trader consensus 16% implied probability as slim favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Yet the top contenders remain tightly bunched through Argentina (10%) down to Brazil (9%), reflecting the tournament's three-year horizon, ongoing qualifiers exposing volatility (England's 2-1 upset loss to Greece, France's 3-1 Nations League defeat to Italy, Brazil's middling CONMEBOL standings), and the expanded 48-team format amplifying paths for European powerhouses, Copa America champion Argentina, and South American rivals amid uncertainties in form, injuries, and hosting advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$396,050,675 交易量
$396,050,675 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
2%
日本
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
加纳
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$396,050,675 交易量
$396,050,675 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
2%
日本
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
加纳
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's Euro 2024 triumph, Olympic men's soccer gold medal via 5-3 extra-time win over France, and perfect UEFA Nations League start—capped by a 4-1 rout of Switzerland on October 11—have propelled them to a trader consensus 16% implied probability as slim favorites for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Yet the top contenders remain tightly bunched through Argentina (10%) down to Brazil (9%), reflecting the tournament's three-year horizon, ongoing qualifiers exposing volatility (England's 2-1 upset loss to Greece, France's 3-1 Nations League defeat to Italy, Brazil's middling CONMEBOL standings), and the expanded 48-team format amplifying paths for European powerhouses, Copa America champion Argentina, and South American rivals amid uncertainties in form, injuries, and hosting advantages for USA, Canada, and Mexico.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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