Market icon
世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

Market icon
世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

Dec 31

Dec 31

$4,360,721 交易量

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$4,360,721 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$4,022,620 交易量

<1%

4月30日

$37,014 交易量

1%

12月31日

$301,087 交易量

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran since President Trump's launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026—which have degraded Iranian nuclear sites, missile capabilities, and military leadership—no formal congressional declaration of war has occurred, as confirmed by official statements and Britannica records. Recent developments include U.S. troops injured in an Iranian counterattack on March 27, Secretary of State Rubio's projection of resolution in weeks, and Iran's review of a U.S. ceasefire proposal via mediators as of March 25. Congressional Democrats' war powers resolutions to limit actions failed in Senate votes earlier this month, highlighting partisan divides over executive authority versus Article I requirements. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic de-escalation signals and historical reluctance for formal declarations in modern conflicts.

Despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran since President Trump's launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026—which have degraded Iranian nuclear sites, missile capabilities, and military leadership—no formal congressional declaration of war has occurred, as confirmed by official statements and Britannica records. Recent developments include U.S. troops injured in an Iranian counterattack on March 27, Secretary of State Rubio's projection of resolution in weeks, and Iran's review of a U.S. ceasefire proposal via mediators as of March 25. Congressional Democrats' war powers resolutions to limit actions failed in Senate votes earlier this month, highlighting partisan divides over executive authority versus Article I requirements. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic de-escalation signals and historical reluctance for formal declarations in modern conflicts.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran since President Trump's launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026—which have degraded Iranian nuclear sites, missile capabilities, and military leadership—no formal congressional declaration of war has occurred, as confirmed by official statements and Britannica records. Recent developments include U.S. troops injured in an Iranian counterattack on March 27, Secretary of State Rubio's projection of resolution in weeks, and Iran's review of a U.S. ceasefire proposal via mediators as of March 25. Congressional Democrats' war powers resolutions to limit actions failed in Senate votes earlier this month, highlighting partisan divides over executive authority versus Article I requirements. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic de-escalation signals and historical reluctance for formal declarations in modern conflicts.

Despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran since President Trump's launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026—which have degraded Iranian nuclear sites, missile capabilities, and military leadership—no formal congressional declaration of war has occurred, as confirmed by official statements and Britannica records. Recent developments include U.S. troops injured in an Iranian counterattack on March 27, Secretary of State Rubio's projection of resolution in weeks, and Iran's review of a U.S. ceasefire proposal via mediators as of March 25. Congressional Democrats' war powers resolutions to limit actions failed in Senate votes earlier this month, highlighting partisan divides over executive authority versus Article I requirements. Traders weigh escalation risks against diplomatic de-escalation signals and historical reluctance for formal declarations in modern conflicts.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 10%, followed by "4月30日" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" has generated $4.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is "12月31日" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月30日" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.