US-Iran tensions simmer through proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, but recent direct exchanges have not pushed the US toward a formal war declaration, last authorized by Congress in 1942. Iran's October 1 barrage of 200 missiles against Israel was largely intercepted with defensive US assistance, followed by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, from which the Biden administration distanced itself offensively to avoid escalation. Ongoing US sanctions, targeted strikes on Iran-backed militias, and diplomatic efforts prioritize deterrence over broader war, facing steep procedural hurdles in a divided Congress. Trader consensus reflects this restraint, with the November presidential election and potential Israeli operations in Lebanon as key upcoming catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$4,163,131 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
1%
12月31日
9%
$4,163,131 交易量
3月31日
$3,855,674 交易量
<1%
4月30日
$14,736 交易量
1%
12月31日
$293,392 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
交易量
$4,163,131結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$4,163,131結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions simmer through proxy conflicts involving Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis, but recent direct exchanges have not pushed the US toward a formal war declaration, last authorized by Congress in 1942. Iran's October 1 barrage of 200 missiles against Israel was largely intercepted with defensive US assistance, followed by Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, from which the Biden administration distanced itself offensively to avoid escalation. Ongoing US sanctions, targeted strikes on Iran-backed militias, and diplomatic efforts prioritize deterrence over broader war, facing steep procedural hurdles in a divided Congress. Trader consensus reflects this restraint, with the November presidential election and potential Israeli operations in Lebanon as key upcoming catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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