Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) March settlement exceeding $90, driven by escalating geopolitical risk premiums from Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping—disrupting up to 12% of global seaborne oil flows—and fresh Ukraine-Russia tensions threatening Black Sea exports. OPEC+'s extension of 2.2 million barrels-per-day voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 reinforces supply tightness, amplified by recent EIA inventory draws of 1.4 million barrels last week amid resilient Chinese demand and steady U.S. refinery runs. A weakening U.S. dollar index supports commodity pricing, with backwardated futures curves signaling bullish sentiment. Key catalysts include this week's API/EIA data and potential U.S. sanctions expansions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$90以上 77%
$85-$90 16%
80-85美元 3.4%
75到80美元 1.9%
$1,015,232 交易量
$1,015,232 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低於60美元
<1%
60至65美元
<1%
$65-$70
1%
70至75美元
2%
75到80美元
2%
80-85美元
3%
$85-$90
16%
$90以上
77%
$90以上 77%
$85-$90 16%
80-85美元 3.4%
75到80美元 1.9%
$1,015,232 交易量
$1,015,232 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低於60美元
$98,959 交易量
<1%
60至65美元
$110,921 交易量
<1%
$65-$70
$191,597 交易量
1%
70至75美元
$50,298 交易量
2%
75到80美元
$209,132 交易量
2%
80-85美元
$135,361 交易量
3%
$85-$90
$104,423 交易量
16%
$90以上
$114,542 交易量
77%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) March settlement exceeding $90, driven by escalating geopolitical risk premiums from Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping—disrupting up to 12% of global seaborne oil flows—and fresh Ukraine-Russia tensions threatening Black Sea exports. OPEC+'s extension of 2.2 million barrels-per-day voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 reinforces supply tightness, amplified by recent EIA inventory draws of 1.4 million barrels last week amid resilient Chinese demand and steady U.S. refinery runs. A weakening U.S. dollar index supports commodity pricing, with backwardated futures curves signaling bullish sentiment. Key catalysts include this week's API/EIA data and potential U.S. sanctions expansions.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市場開放時間： Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$1,015,232結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) March settlement exceeding $90, driven by escalating geopolitical risk premiums from Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping—disrupting up to 12% of global seaborne oil flows—and fresh Ukraine-Russia tensions threatening Black Sea exports. OPEC+'s extension of 2.2 million barrels-per-day voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 reinforces supply tightness, amplified by recent EIA inventory draws of 1.4 million barrels last week amid resilient Chinese demand and steady U.S. refinery runs. A weakening U.S. dollar index supports commodity pricing, with backwardated futures curves signaling bullish sentiment. Key catalysts include this week's API/EIA data and potential U.S. sanctions expansions.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
交易量
$1,015,232結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74.5% implied probability to WTI Crude Oil (CL) March settlement exceeding $90, driven by escalating geopolitical risk premiums from Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping—disrupting up to 12% of global seaborne oil flows—and fresh Ukraine-Russia tensions threatening Black Sea exports. OPEC+'s extension of 2.2 million barrels-per-day voluntary cuts into Q1 2025 reinforces supply tightness, amplified by recent EIA inventory draws of 1.4 million barrels last week amid resilient Chinese demand and steady U.S. refinery runs. A weakening U.S. dollar index supports commodity pricing, with backwardated futures curves signaling bullish sentiment. Key catalysts include this week's API/EIA data and potential U.S. sanctions expansions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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