第一季標準普爾500指數績效

Name: 第一季標準普爾500指數績效
Start: 2026-01-14T22:55:33.015Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

經濟艙·指示

第一季標準普爾500指數績效

小於0% 93%

2-3% 3.1%

0-2% 2.4%

3-4% 1.3%

$273,225 交易量

Mar 31, 2026

小於0%

$34,781 交易量

93%

0-2%

$11,332 交易量

2-3%

$15,849 交易量

3-4%

$18,206 交易量

4-5%

$51,503 交易量

5-6%

$44,268 交易量

<1%

6-8%

$56,214 交易量

8-10%

$18,934 交易量

<1%

10%+

$22,137 交易量

<1%

小於0% 93%

2-3% 3.1%

0-2% 2.4%

3-4% 1.3%

$273,225 交易量

Mar 31, 2026

小於0%

$34,781 交易量

93%

0-2%

$11,332 交易量

2-3%

$15,849 交易量

3-4%

$18,206 交易量

4-5%

$51,503 交易量

5-6%

$44,268 交易量

<1%

6-8%

$56,214 交易量

8-10%

$18,934 交易量

<1%

10%+

$22,137 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance (<0% return), reflecting heightened recession fears amid sticky inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent CPI prints exceeding expectations (core PCE at 2.8% YoY) have eroded hopes for March easing, while rising initial jobless claims (above 220K weekly average) and softening retail sales signal consumer fatigue after two years of aggressive tightening. Corporate profit warnings from bellwethers like Walmart underscore margin pressures from higher input costs. This bearish positioning aligns with elevated VIX levels near 20, echoing 2022's first-quarter drawdown. Upside risks include a dovish FOMC pivot or resilient Q4 earnings beats propelling a relief rally above 5,800.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"第一季標準普爾500指數績效" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "小於0%" at 93%, followed by "2-3%" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" has generated $273.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "第一季標準普爾500指數績效," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" is "小於0%" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2-3%" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "第一季標準普爾500指數績效." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $273.2K traded on “第一季標準普爾500指數績效,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "第一季標準普爾500指數績效," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 93¢ for "小於0%" in the "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 93% chance that "小於0%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 93¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 7¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "第一季標準普爾500指數績效." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

第一季標準普爾500指數績效

第一季標準普爾500指數績效

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盤口背景

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "第一季標準普爾500指數績效"?

What are the current odds for "第一季標準普爾500指數績效"?

How will "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" be resolved?

Can I follow "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "第一季標準普爾500指數績效"?

What does a price of 93¢ for "小於0%" mean?

When does the "第一季標準普爾500指數績效" market close?

What are traders saying about "第一季標準普爾500指數績效"?

What is Polymarket?