Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts bullish with a 62% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) closing above $415 by end of March, driven primarily by a recent 3% intraday dip to $409.52 amid reports of surging AI capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion annually, offsetting robust Azure cloud revenue growth from the January quarter. Despite broader tech sector rotation out of megacaps and Nasdaq volatility post-FOMC, MSFT's historical March-end average gain of 1.2% over five years supports rebound potential ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which could boost risk assets if labor markets cool further. Key threshold: sustained trading above $412 this week bolsters yes-side conviction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$70,127 交易量
$315
91%
$330
91%
$345
95%
$360
84%
375美元
72%
390美元
43%
$405
7%
$420
3%
435美元
5%
$450
50%
465美元
1%
$480
1%
495美元
1%
$70,127 交易量
$315
91%
$330
91%
$345
95%
$360
84%
375美元
72%
390美元
43%
$405
7%
$420
3%
435美元
5%
$450
50%
465美元
1%
$480
1%
495美元
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
市場開放時間: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts bullish with a 62% implied probability for Microsoft (MSFT) closing above $415 by end of March, driven primarily by a recent 3% intraday dip to $409.52 amid reports of surging AI capital expenditures exceeding $50 billion annually, offsetting robust Azure cloud revenue growth from the January quarter. Despite broader tech sector rotation out of megacaps and Nasdaq volatility post-FOMC, MSFT's historical March-end average gain of 1.2% over five years supports rebound potential ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls data, which could boost risk assets if labor markets cool further. Key threshold: sustained trading above $412 this week bolsters yes-side conviction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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