US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites in Isfahan, bridges in Karaj, and steel plants near Isfahan, as reported in the past week, while Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel injuring several and downing a US F-15E fighter jet on April 3. President Trump's April 4 threats to target additional vital infrastructure amid no diplomatic ceasefire signals or de-escalation have sustained trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability for military action persisting through April 30, reflecting the entrenched escalation pattern since February 28 without evident off-ramps. Lower probabilities on specific end dates like April 30 (3.8%) highlight uncertainty over potential shifts from proxy responses or ground operation considerations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Military action through April 30 77%
April 30 3.8%
April 15 2.4%
April 20 1.9%
$213,269 交易量
$213,269 交易量
2026-04-30
April 5
<1%
April 6
1%
April 7
1%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
1%
April 11
1%
April 12
1%
April 13
2%
April 14
1%
April 15
2%
April 16
1%
April 17
<1%
April 18
1%
April 19
2%
April 20
2%
April 21
2%
April 22
1%
April 23
1%
April 24
1%
April 25
2%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
1%
April 29
2%
April 30
4%
Military action through April 30
77%
Military action through April 30 77%
April 30 3.8%
April 15 2.4%
April 20 1.9%
$213,269 交易量
$213,269 交易量
2026-04-30
April 5
$13,257 交易量
<1%
April 6
$18,537 交易量
1%
April 7
$8,459 交易量
1%
April 8
$3,174 交易量
1%
April 9
$2,826 交易量
1%
April 10
$3,216 交易量
1%
April 11
$2,346 交易量
1%
April 12
$2,397 交易量
1%
April 13
$2,933 交易量
2%
April 14
$2,437 交易量
1%
April 15
$2,402 交易量
2%
April 16
$2,277 交易量
1%
April 17
$2,454 交易量
<1%
April 18
$2,497 交易量
1%
April 19
$2,772 交易量
2%
April 20
$3,089 交易量
2%
April 21
$2,891 交易量
2%
April 22
$2,592 交易量
1%
April 23
$2,982 交易量
1%
April 24
$2,690 交易量
1%
April 25
$3,009 交易量
2%
April 26
$2,561 交易量
1%
April 27
$2,906 交易量
1%
April 28
$2,060 交易量
1%
April 29
$2,343 交易量
2%
April 30
$3,254 交易量
4%
Military action through April 30
$23,245 交易量
77%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites in Isfahan, bridges in Karaj, and steel plants near Isfahan, as reported in the past week, while Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel injuring several and downing a US F-15E fighter jet on April 3. President Trump's April 4 threats to target additional vital infrastructure amid no diplomatic ceasefire signals or de-escalation have sustained trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability for military action persisting through April 30, reflecting the entrenched escalation pattern since February 28 without evident off-ramps. Lower probabilities on specific end dates like April 30 (3.8%) highlight uncertainty over potential shifts from proxy responses or ground operation considerations.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$213,269結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites in Isfahan, bridges in Karaj, and steel plants near Isfahan, as reported in the past week, while Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel injuring several and downing a US F-15E fighter jet on April 3. President Trump's April 4 threats to target additional vital infrastructure amid no diplomatic ceasefire signals or de-escalation have sustained trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability for military action persisting through April 30, reflecting the entrenched escalation pattern since February 28 without evident off-ramps. Lower probabilities on specific end dates like April 30 (3.8%) highlight uncertainty over potential shifts from proxy responses or ground operation considerations.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$213,269結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites in Isfahan, bridges in Karaj, and steel plants near Isfahan, as reported in the past week, while Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel injuring several and downing a US F-15E fighter jet on April 3. President Trump's April 4 threats to target additional vital infrastructure amid no diplomatic ceasefire signals or de-escalation have sustained trader consensus at 76.5% implied probability for military action persisting through April 30, reflecting the entrenched escalation pattern since February 28 without evident off-ramps. Lower probabilities on specific end dates like April 30 (3.8%) highlight uncertainty over potential shifts from proxy responses or ground operation considerations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions