US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile sites and nuclear-adjacent facilities, continue unabated into the conflict's sixth week as of April 4, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel and downing a US fighter jet yesterday, leaving one crew member missing amid ongoing search operations. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, signaling sustained escalation despite degraded Iranian capabilities reported by US Central Command. Trader consensus at 68% for military action through April 30 reflects this lack of de-escalation signals, persistent crossfire, and no official end declarations, outweighing low probabilities on specific end dates amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential for further retaliatory strikes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Military action through April 30 68%
April 30 4.3%
April 27 3.8%
April 29 3.6%
$185,275 交易量
$185,275 交易量
2026-04-30
April 4
<1%
April 5
1%
April 6
1%
April 7
1%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
1%
April 11
1%
April 12
1%
April 13
2%
April 14
2%
April 15
2%
April 16
2%
April 17
3%
April 18
2%
April 19
3%
April 20
2%
April 21
2%
April 22
3%
April 23
2%
April 24
3%
April 25
3%
April 26
3%
April 27
4%
April 28
3%
April 29
4%
April 30
4%
Military action through April 30
68%
Military action through April 30 68%
April 30 4.3%
April 27 3.8%
April 29 3.6%
$185,275 交易量
$185,275 交易量
2026-04-30
April 4
$6,713 交易量
<1%
April 5
$6,215 交易量
1%
April 6
$15,625 交易量
1%
April 7
$7,962 交易量
1%
April 8
$2,842 交易量
1%
April 9
$2,467 交易量
1%
April 10
$3,058 交易量
1%
April 11
$2,164 交易量
1%
April 12
$2,061 交易量
1%
April 13
$2,599 交易量
2%
April 14
$2,255 交易量
2%
April 15
$1,978 交易量
2%
April 16
$2,090 交易量
2%
April 17
$2,272 交易量
3%
April 18
$2,129 交易量
2%
April 19
$2,332 交易量
3%
April 20
$2,572 交易量
2%
April 21
$2,389 交易量
2%
April 22
$2,410 交易量
3%
April 23
$2,587 交易量
2%
April 24
$2,495 交易量
3%
April 25
$2,796 交易量
3%
April 26
$2,202 交易量
3%
April 27
$2,711 交易量
4%
April 28
$1,878 交易量
3%
April 29
$2,161 交易量
4%
April 30
$3,072 交易量
4%
Military action through April 30
$21,622 交易量
68%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile sites and nuclear-adjacent facilities, continue unabated into the conflict's sixth week as of April 4, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel and downing a US fighter jet yesterday, leaving one crew member missing amid ongoing search operations. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, signaling sustained escalation despite degraded Iranian capabilities reported by US Central Command. Trader consensus at 68% for military action through April 30 reflects this lack of de-escalation signals, persistent crossfire, and no official end declarations, outweighing low probabilities on specific end dates amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential for further retaliatory strikes.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$185,275結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile sites and nuclear-adjacent facilities, continue unabated into the conflict's sixth week as of April 4, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel and downing a US fighter jet yesterday, leaving one crew member missing amid ongoing search operations. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, signaling sustained escalation despite degraded Iranian capabilities reported by US Central Command. Trader consensus at 68% for military action through April 30 reflects this lack of de-escalation signals, persistent crossfire, and no official end declarations, outweighing low probabilities on specific end dates amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential for further retaliatory strikes.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$185,275結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile sites and nuclear-adjacent facilities, continue unabated into the conflict's sixth week as of April 4, with Iran retaliating via missile barrages on Israel and downing a US fighter jet yesterday, leaving one crew member missing amid ongoing search operations. Tehran rejected a 48-hour ceasefire proposal, signaling sustained escalation despite degraded Iranian capabilities reported by US Central Command. Trader consensus at 68% for military action through April 30 reflects this lack of de-escalation signals, persistent crossfire, and no official end declarations, outweighing low probabilities on specific end dates amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential for further retaliatory strikes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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