Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%+ outcome leading at 32.5% implied probability amid February's uptick to 3.21% year-on-year—the highest in 10 months—from January's 2.75%, driven by rising food and fuel pressures under the new 2024=100 base. Lower bands like 2.25%-2.99% (24%) and 1.50%-2.24% (23%) remain competitive due to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026) and retained 4% target (±2% band), tempered by subdued core inflation. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13, geopolitical oil risks from Middle East tensions, and monsoon impacts, with RBI expected to hold repo at 5.25% through mid-2027 amid 4.3% average forecasts for coming years.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4.50%以上 33%
2.25%至2.99% 19%
3.75%到4.49% 19%
低於0.75% 17%
$57,315 交易量
$57,315 交易量
低於0.75%
17%
0.75%至1.49%
5%
1.50% 至 2.24%
24%
2.25%至2.99%
24%
3.00%至3.74%
12%
3.75%到4.49%
19%
4.50%以上
33%
4.50%以上 33%
2.25%至2.99% 19%
3.75%到4.49% 19%
低於0.75% 17%
$57,315 交易量
$57,315 交易量
低於0.75%
17%
0.75%至1.49%
5%
1.50% 至 2.24%
24%
2.25%至2.99%
24%
3.00%至3.74%
12%
3.75%到4.49%
19%
4.50%以上
33%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
市場開放時間: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation, with the 4.50%+ outcome leading at 32.5% implied probability amid February's uptick to 3.21% year-on-year—the highest in 10 months—from January's 2.75%, driven by rising food and fuel pressures under the new 2024=100 base. Lower bands like 2.25%-2.99% (24%) and 1.50%-2.24% (23%) remain competitive due to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026) and retained 4% target (±2% band), tempered by subdued core inflation. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13, geopolitical oil risks from Middle East tensions, and monsoon impacts, with RBI expected to hold repo at 5.25% through mid-2027 amid 4.3% average forecasts for coming years.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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