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icon for 莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

icon for 莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?

12月 31

12月 31

9% 機率
Polymarket

$54,909 交易量

9% 機率
Polymarket

$54,909 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Narendra Modi’s position as prime minister remains firmly entrenched following his third consecutive term that began in June 2024, with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance securing enough seats to form the government despite falling short of a standalone majority. Traders’ strong preference for the “No” outcome at 91.2 percent reflects the absence of any credible internal party challenge or official signals of an early exit, even after Modi turned 75 in September 2025 and ongoing rumors about retirement norms were dismissed by senior BJP and RSS figures. He continues to lead policy initiatives, campaign for upcoming state elections such as those in West Bengal, and address economic pressures through public statements on austerity and growth. By late 2026 Modi will be only midway through his current five-year mandate, with the next general election not due until 2029, leaving little structural or political pressure for a leadership change within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$54,909
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Narendra Modi’s position as prime minister remains firmly entrenched following his third consecutive term that began in June 2024, with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance securing enough seats to form the government despite falling short of a standalone majority. Traders’ strong preference for the “No” outcome at 91.2 percent reflects the absence of any credible internal party challenge or official signals of an early exit, even after Modi turned 75 in September 2025 and ongoing rumors about retirement norms were dismissed by senior BJP and RSS figures. He continues to lead policy initiatives, campaign for upcoming state elections such as those in West Bengal, and address economic pressures through public statements on austerity and growth. By late 2026 Modi will be only midway through his current five-year mandate, with the next general election not due until 2029, leaving little structural or political pressure for a leadership change within the resolution window.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$54,909
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "莫迪會在2026年12月31日前下台嗎?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?" has generated $54.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?" is "莫迪會在2026年12月31日前下台嗎?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "莫迪在2026年12月31日之前退出?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.