Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to an 18°C high temperature in Wuhan on April 14, backed by finalized observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport—the market's official resolution source. Hourly records show the peak reached 18°C midday under overcast conditions and light northerly winds from a passing cool front, capping warming despite typical April climatology averaging 22°C highs. Pre-day ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and CMA had converged near 20°C, but real-time soundings confirmed cooler mid-level air. Realistic challenges include rare post-day data revisions for sensor errors, though CMA protocols make this improbable as observations finalize by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 14?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 14?
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,021 交易量
$85,021 交易量
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$85,021 交易量
$85,021 交易量
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 12, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to an 18°C high temperature in Wuhan on April 14, backed by finalized observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport—the market's official resolution source. Hourly records show the peak reached 18°C midday under overcast conditions and light northerly winds from a passing cool front, capping warming despite typical April climatology averaging 22°C highs. Pre-day ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and CMA had converged near 20°C, but real-time soundings confirmed cooler mid-level air. Realistic challenges include rare post-day data revisions for sensor errors, though CMA protocols make this improbable as observations finalize by evening.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions