Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 28

Mar 29

13°C 45%

14°C 23%

12°C 21%

11°C or below 7%

Polymarket

$140,389 交易量

13°C 45%

14°C 23%

12°C 21%

11°C or below 7%

Polymarket

$140,389 交易量

11°C or below

$5,523 交易量

7%

12°C

$3,005 交易量

21%

13°C

$3,371 交易量

45%

14°C

$4,150 交易量

23%

15°C

$2,225 交易量

4%

16°C

$3,127 交易量

2%

17°C

$3,032 交易量

<1%

18°C

$3,605 交易量

<1%

19°C

$3,054 交易量

<1%

20°C

$68,224 交易量

<1%

21°C or higher

$41,074 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF ensemble model runs project Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 13–14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for exactly 13°C amid 20.5% for 12°C and 22.5% for 14°C. This positioning stems from a recent shift to northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air masses, combined with persistent low-level cloud cover suppressing daytime heating after yesterday's 18.7°C high at Retiro station. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and potential afternoon clearing, but historical late-March analogs under similar synoptic patterns average 12–14°C maxima. Traders eye final 12z ECMWF updates today and AEMET evening bulletin for refinements before resolution via official observations.

Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF ensemble model runs project Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 13–14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for exactly 13°C amid 20.5% for 12°C and 22.5% for 14°C. This positioning stems from a recent shift to northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air masses, combined with persistent low-level cloud cover suppressing daytime heating after yesterday's 18.7°C high at Retiro station. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and potential afternoon clearing, but historical late-March analogs under similar synoptic patterns average 12–14°C maxima. Traders eye final 12z ECMWF updates today and AEMET evening bulletin for refinements before resolution via official observations.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF ensemble model runs project Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 13–14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for exactly 13°C amid 20.5% for 12°C and 22.5% for 14°C. This positioning stems from a recent shift to northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air masses, combined with persistent low-level cloud cover suppressing daytime heating after yesterday's 18.7°C high at Retiro station. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and potential afternoon clearing, but historical late-March analogs under similar synoptic patterns average 12–14°C maxima. Traders eye final 12z ECMWF updates today and AEMET evening bulletin for refinements before resolution via official observations.

Latest AEMET forecasts and ECMWF ensemble model runs project Madrid's highest temperature on March 29 around 13–14°C, driving trader consensus with 44.5% implied probability for exactly 13°C amid 20.5% for 12°C and 22.5% for 14°C. This positioning stems from a recent shift to northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air masses, combined with persistent low-level cloud cover suppressing daytime heating after yesterday's 18.7°C high at Retiro station. Ensemble spreads reflect uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and potential afternoon clearing, but historical late-March analogs under similar synoptic patterns average 12–14°C maxima. Traders eye final 12z ECMWF updates today and AEMET evening bulletin for refinements before resolution via official observations.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "13°C" at 45%, followed by "14°C" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" has generated $140.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 25, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" is "13°C" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.