Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月16日北京最高溫度?
4月16日北京最高溫度?
21°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 交易量
$131,519 交易量
18°C或以下
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C或以上
否
21°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 交易量
$131,519 交易量
18°C或以下
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C或以上
否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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