Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 at the Capital International Airport reaching 24°C or below, driven by official observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing meteorological station projecting a daytime maximum of 22-23°C under partly cloudy skies and northerly winds limiting solar heating. Current surface data confirms morning lows near 9°C and midday readings well under 24°C, aligning with spring climatology where mid-April average highs hover around 20-22°C amid variable jet stream steering. Model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction supports this cap, with no significant warm air advection. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing late-afternoon convective heating or microscale variations at the airport site, though diurnal cooling now underway as evening sets in makes exceeding 24°C highly improbable; final daily observations expected from CMA by midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 11?
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$100,565 交易量
$100,565 交易量
24°C or below
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
24°C or below 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$100,565 交易量
$100,565 交易量
24°C or below
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 7, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on April 11 at the Capital International Airport reaching 24°C or below, driven by official observations and forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing meteorological station projecting a daytime maximum of 22-23°C under partly cloudy skies and northerly winds limiting solar heating. Current surface data confirms morning lows near 9°C and midday readings well under 24°C, aligning with spring climatology where mid-April average highs hover around 20-22°C amid variable jet stream steering. Model consensus from short-range numerical weather prediction supports this cap, with no significant warm air advection. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing late-afternoon convective heating or microscale variations at the airport site, though diurnal cooling now underway as evening sets in makes exceeding 24°C highly improbable; final daily observations expected from CMA by midnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions