Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 80-81°F at 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature on April 8, 2026, driven by official observational data from the National Weather Service's Austin-Bergstrom International Airport station (KAUS), which recorded a daily maximum of 80 or 81°F—aligning closely with the April climatological normal of 79°F. This positioning reflects verified hourly surface measurements confirming no higher peaks amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that capped daytime heating. The wisdom-of-crowds dynamic, backed by real capital, solidified as preliminary climate summaries (CLI reports) released early April 9 corroborated the reading. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc revisions, such as instrument calibration errors uncovered by NOAA audits, though historical data revision rates for such routine observations remain below 1%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Austin on April 8?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 8?
80-81°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$91,743 交易量
$91,743 交易量
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$91,743 交易量
$91,743 交易量
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Apr 4, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 80-81°F at 100% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature on April 8, 2026, driven by official observational data from the National Weather Service's Austin-Bergstrom International Airport station (KAUS), which recorded a daily maximum of 80 or 81°F—aligning closely with the April climatological normal of 79°F. This positioning reflects verified hourly surface measurements confirming no higher peaks amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds that capped daytime heating. The wisdom-of-crowds dynamic, backed by real capital, solidified as preliminary climate summaries (CLI reports) released early April 9 corroborated the reading. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc revisions, such as instrument calibration errors uncovered by NOAA audits, though historical data revision rates for such routine observations remain below 1%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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