Traders assign a 95.3% implied probability against NATO dissolution before 2027 due to the alliance's entrenched treaty framework, collective defense commitments under Article 5, and recent institutional adaptations. At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, members endorsed higher defense spending targets reaching 5% of GDP by 2035, building on universal compliance with the prior 2% benchmark and reinforcing burden-sharing amid U.S. pressure for European-led capabilities by 2027. These steps, alongside congressional protections limiting unilateral U.S. withdrawal, underscore continuity despite transatlantic tensions and shifting strategic priorities. Full dissolution would require coordinated exits or formal termination by multiple members, outcomes constrained by legal procedures and shared threat perceptions. Scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt policy reversals in key capitals or major escalations altering alliance incentives before the 2027 horizon.