The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by June 30. Iranian security forces have suppressed earlier protests and maintained control amid economic strain and elite infighting, while a fragile ceasefire with ongoing low-level incidents has not produced the institutional breakdown or mass defections required for rapid regime change. Historical patterns of authoritarian continuity in similar crises further align with this assessment. Although renewed large-scale unrest, accelerated diplomatic isolation, or internal military fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before the deadline, current verifiable developments show no such trajectory materializing in the remaining weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 30 tháng 6?
Chế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 30 tháng 6?
Có
$51,387,008 KL.
$51,387,008 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Có
$51,387,008 KL.
$51,387,008 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by June 30. Iranian security forces have suppressed earlier protests and maintained control amid economic strain and elite infighting, while a fragile ceasefire with ongoing low-level incidents has not produced the institutional breakdown or mass defections required for rapid regime change. Historical patterns of authoritarian continuity in similar crises further align with this assessment. Although renewed large-scale unrest, accelerated diplomatic isolation, or internal military fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before the deadline, current verifiable developments show no such trajectory materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,387,008Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by June 30. Iranian security forces have suppressed earlier protests and maintained control amid economic strain and elite infighting, while a fragile ceasefire with ongoing low-level incidents has not produced the institutional breakdown or mass defections required for rapid regime change. Historical patterns of authoritarian continuity in similar crises further align with this assessment. Although renewed large-scale unrest, accelerated diplomatic isolation, or internal military fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before the deadline, current verifiable developments show no such trajectory materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$51,387,916Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the swift March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus against collapse by June 30. Iranian security forces have suppressed earlier protests and maintained control amid economic strain and elite infighting, while a fragile ceasefire with ongoing low-level incidents has not produced the institutional breakdown or mass defections required for rapid regime change. Historical patterns of authoritarian continuity in similar crises further align with this assessment. Although renewed large-scale unrest, accelerated diplomatic isolation, or internal military fractures could theoretically shift dynamics before the deadline, current verifiable developments show no such trajectory materializing in the remaining weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp