Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, including on Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, have destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like the pilot fuel enrichment plant, extending Iran's estimated breakout time beyond months and supporting 90.5% "No" odds on a nuclear weapon before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm a 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but highlight Tehran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged facilities, with no verified weaponization progress. April diplomatic signals, including Iran's proposal for a five-year nuclear suspension amid ceasefire talks, reinforce trader consensus on de-escalation, though IAEA verification remains pending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$539,154 KL.
$539,154 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$539,154 KL.
$539,154 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, including on Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, have destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like the pilot fuel enrichment plant, extending Iran's estimated breakout time beyond months and supporting 90.5% "No" odds on a nuclear weapon before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm a 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but highlight Tehran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged facilities, with no verified weaponization progress. April diplomatic signals, including Iran's proposal for a five-year nuclear suspension amid ceasefire talks, reinforce trader consensus on de-escalation, though IAEA verification remains pending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$539,154Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, including on Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, have destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like the pilot fuel enrichment plant, extending Iran's estimated breakout time beyond months and supporting 90.5% "No" odds on a nuclear weapon before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm a 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but highlight Tehran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged facilities, with no verified weaponization progress. April diplomatic signals, including Iran's proposal for a five-year nuclear suspension amid ceasefire talks, reinforce trader consensus on de-escalation, though IAEA verification remains pending.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$539,154Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026, including on Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, have destroyed key enrichment infrastructure like the pilot fuel enrichment plant, extending Iran's estimated breakout time beyond months and supporting 90.5% "No" odds on a nuclear weapon before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm a 440.9 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but highlight Tehran's denial of inspector access to war-damaged facilities, with no verified weaponization progress. April diplomatic signals, including Iran's proposal for a five-year nuclear suspension amid ceasefire talks, reinforce trader consensus on de-escalation, though IAEA verification remains pending.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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