US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains approximately nine to twelve months, largely unchanged after 2025 and 2026 strikes on enrichment and weaponization sites. Recent ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, including talks on highly enriched uranium stockpiles and enrichment limits, reflect ongoing diplomatic pressure alongside military degradation of facilities like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iranian officials have stated no resumption of enrichment activities, consistent with March 2026 testimony from the Director of National Intelligence. These factors, combined with IAEA monitoring gaps and targeted actions against related scientific infrastructure, underpin the 92.3% implied probability that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027.