Iran's nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying most centrifuges, eliminating key enrichment sites, and removing scientists, which has left the program non-operational on a weapons-relevant scale. IAEA inspectors lack access to damaged locations and cannot verify the status of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled before the attacks, while ongoing construction at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain remains limited to fortification rather than active cascades. Diplomatic channels continue with Iranian offers to dilute material in exchange for sanctions relief, yet no agreement has materialized and officials maintain that breakout thresholds lie beyond the immediate horizon. These verified setbacks underpin trader consensus that a completed nuclear device before 2027 faces substantial technical and political barriers, though undetected recovery of underground stocks or abrupt NPT withdrawal could still alter timelines.