US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged since US-Israeli strikes last summer and the February-April 2026 conflict that damaged key facilities like the Khondab heavy water plant and enrichment sites. Despite a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—enough for several bombs if further processed—IAEA reports confirm no resumption of weaponization activities or political authorization from Supreme Leader Khamenei. Post-ceasefire US-Iran negotiations focus on zero-enrichment proposals and stricter safeguards, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" before 2027, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$592,195 KL.
$592,195 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$592,195 KL.
$592,195 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged since US-Israeli strikes last summer and the February-April 2026 conflict that damaged key facilities like the Khondab heavy water plant and enrichment sites. Despite a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—enough for several bombs if further processed—IAEA reports confirm no resumption of weaponization activities or political authorization from Supreme Leader Khamenei. Post-ceasefire US-Iran negotiations focus on zero-enrichment proposals and stricter safeguards, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" before 2027, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$592,195Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged since US-Israeli strikes last summer and the February-April 2026 conflict that damaged key facilities like the Khondab heavy water plant and enrichment sites. Despite a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—enough for several bombs if further processed—IAEA reports confirm no resumption of weaponization activities or political authorization from Supreme Leader Khamenei. Post-ceasefire US-Iran negotiations focus on zero-enrichment proposals and stricter safeguards, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" before 2027, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$592,195Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged since US-Israeli strikes last summer and the February-April 2026 conflict that damaged key facilities like the Khondab heavy water plant and enrichment sites. Despite a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—enough for several bombs if further processed—IAEA reports confirm no resumption of weaponization activities or political authorization from Supreme Leader Khamenei. Post-ceasefire US-Iran negotiations focus on zero-enrichment proposals and stricter safeguards, reinforcing trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" before 2027, though late escalations or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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