Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April, fueled by elevated energy and commodity prices stemming from Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Professional forecasters now project full-year 2026 headline CPI around 3.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis, with core measures near 2.9%, while consumer one-year expectations hover at 3.5%. These readings, alongside Cleveland Fed nowcasts pointing to June inflation near 4%, have shifted trader sentiment toward higher peak levels for the year, reflecting concerns over delayed pass-through effects and persistent services inflation. Market-implied probabilities price in notable risks of readings above 4% persisting, with upcoming monthly BLS releases and FOMC communications serving as key catalysts that could further influence rate path expectations and long-term Treasury yields.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtInflation cools in June amid falling energy prices, but risks remain
Above 4.5% dips to 19%3%
The New York Times reported that June's 3.5% annual inflation rate was a cool-down from May's 4.2%, largely due to tumbling oil prices. However, renewed hostilities with Iran could reignite inflation pressures, keeping market uncertainty about inflation's future trajectory.
June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, largest monthly decline since 2020
Above 6% drops to 6%7%
The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI for June 2026, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. Core inflation also eased, signaling a cooling trend that led to a significant drop in market prices for higher inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.
BLS reports June 2026 CPI inflation slows to 3.5% amid energy price declines
Above 6% drops to 3%11%
The June 2026 CPI report showed a 3.5% annual inflation rate, down from 4.2% in May, driven by a 5.7% monthly decline in the energy index and easing housing costs, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for higher inflation thresholds.
June CPI shows inflation easing to 3.5% amid falling energy prices
Above 4.5% dips to 20%2%
June 2026 CPI data revealed a 0.4% monthly decline and a 3.5% annual inflation rate, the first pullback since January. The drop was largely due to a sharp fall in gasoline and energy prices, providing temporary relief and causing market inflation probabilities to decline sharply.
U.S. Consumer Price Index falls 0.4% in June 2026, largest monthly decrease since 2020
Above 4.5% drops to 24%13%
The CPI decreased 0.4% in June 2026, driven largely by a drop in energy prices, marking the largest monthly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This significant easing in inflation contributed to a sharp reduction in market expectations for very high inflation outcomes in 2026.
June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, largest monthly decline since 2020
Above 4.5% plunges to 24%37%
The June 2026 CPI report showed a 0.4% monthly decrease and a 3.5% annual increase, below expectations. Energy prices declined, offsetting other increases, signaling easing inflation and causing market prices for higher inflation outcomes to drop sharply.
June 2026 CPI projected to rise 3.8% year-over-year, signaling easing inflation
Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%
Projections for the June 2026 CPI indicated a 3.8% year-over-year increase, suggesting a moderation in inflation pressures. This outlook contributed to further declines in market expectations for inflation exceeding 4.5%, 5%, and higher thresholds.
June 2026 CPI shows 0.4% monthly decline, annual inflation falls to 3.5%
Above 6% drops to 7%7%
The June 2026 CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decrease, the largest since April 2020, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. Annual inflation fell to 3.5%, below expectations, causing market probabilities for high inflation outcomes to plummet.
Federal Reserve minutes reveal AI-driven inflation concerns and rate hike debate
The June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting minutes released on July 9, 2026, highlighted internal divisions over interest rate paths amid concerns about inflation driven by AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tensions. This uncertainty influenced market expectations for inflation and monetary policy.
New York Fed survey shows short- and medium-term inflation expectations rise
Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations reported increased inflation expectations at one- and three-year horizons, reflecting consumer concerns about persistent inflation. This data indicated inflation pressures remained a concern despite Fed actions, influencing market sentiment.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows rising short-term inflation expectations in June 2026
The New York Fed's June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations found median one-year inflation expectations increased to 3.7%, the highest since September 2023, reflecting consumer concerns about persistent inflation despite recent easing in headline CPI. This sentiment influenced market pricing by sustaining some inflation risk premiums.
May 2026 PCE inflation report shows 4.1% annual increase, highest since April 2023
Above 4.5% dips to 60%4%
The Commerce Department's PCE report confirmed persistent inflation with a 4.1% annual rise, supporting the Fed's cautious stance and market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.
PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% in May, Reflecting Broad Energy Price Pressures
The Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index ran at a 4.1% annual rate in May, confirming persistent inflation pressures stemming from the conflict in Iran.
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge hits three-year high in May
Above 6% drops to 8%6%
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure rose to a new three-year high in May 2026, driven by peak gas prices amid the Iran conflict. This data heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing market expectations and price declines for higher inflation thresholds.
Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge surges above 4% in June 2026
Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose to 4.1% annual rate in June 2026, the highest since April 2023. This confirmed ongoing inflationary pressures despite cautious Fed policy, reinforcing market expectations that inflation would remain above 4.5% but unlikely to exceed higher thresholds like 6% or 8%.
PCE Inflation Hits Three-Year High of 4.1% but Truce with Iran Lowers Oil Prices
The Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge rose to 4.1% in May, but the announcement of a preliminary peace deal and truce with Iran caused oil prices to drop, easing long-term inflation fears.
Bank of America predicts Fed rate hikes starting September to combat sticky inflation
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
Analysts at Bank of America forecast that the Federal Reserve would begin raising rates in September 2026, reversing prior cuts, due to persistent inflation pressures and supply shocks. This outlook contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks and lowered probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.
Fed's favorite inflation gauge expected to show acceleration in May 2026
Bloomberg reported expectations that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, would show acceleration in May 2026, supporting the case for continued interest rate hikes and sustained inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in Warsh's first meeting
Above 4.5% drops to 56%10%
The Federal Open Market Committee, led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, kept rates steady but signaled possible hikes later in 2026 due to inflation remaining above target, impacting market inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals possible hikes amid elevated inflation
Above 5% plunges to 13%18%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks including energy prices. The Fed raised its inflation outlook for 2026 to 3.6%, signaling a less accommodative stance and influencing market expectations downward for very high inflation outcomes.
Federal Reserve projects inflation slightly higher and maintains cautious policy stance
Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve projected slightly higher inflation for 2026 and maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainties. This reinforced market views that inflation would remain above target, limiting expectations for significant rate cuts or inflation declines in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair
Above 6% drops to 7%7%
The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate range, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and removing earlier expectations for rate cuts in 2026. The decision signaled a commitment to monitor inflation closely and readiness to act if necessary, influencing market inflation expectations downward.
Federal Reserve Unanimously Votes to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%
The FOMC voted 12-0 to maintain the federal funds rate, citing elevated inflation from energy supply shocks but noting solid economic expansion.
Federal Reserve signals patience on interest rates amid inflation uncertainty
Above 5% drops to 14%12%
Following the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy, maintaining rates steady and emphasizing data dependency due to inflation uncertainty. This reinforced market expectations that inflation would moderate but remain above target, influencing prices for inflation thresholds above 4.5% and 5%.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, raises inflation outlook for 2026
At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed kept rates steady but raised its inflation forecast to 3.6% for headline inflation, reflecting concerns about the inflation spike due to geopolitical tensions. This maintained market caution on inflation risks.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady amid high inflation
At the June 17, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, acknowledging persistent inflation at 4.2% but signaling possible future hikes. This cautious stance contributed to market reassessment of inflation risk and expectations for future monetary policy.
Federal Reserve projects inflation above 4% by end of 2026
The Federal Reserve's FOMC projections in June 2026 indicated inflation likely to remain above 4% by the end of 2026, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes.
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at June FOMC Meeting
Above 5% drops to 14%6%
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates steady at the current range during the June 16-17 meeting, reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent inflation and economic growth. The Fed's communication emphasized patience and data-dependence, which stabilized market expectations and contributed to a gradual decline in inflation probability prices.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals inflation remains elevated
Above 6% drops to 13%5%
At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but emphasized that inflation remains elevated, partly due to supply shocks including energy prices from the Middle East conflict, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy.
BLS reports US inflation rises to 4.2% in May 2026, highest since April 2023
Above 4.5% plunges to 19%31%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI data showing inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid the Iran war. This data confirmed persistent inflation above 4.5%, causing market prices for inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5% to decline as the peak appeared near but inflation remained elevated.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns
Above 6% plunges to 14%33%
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks including energy prices. The Fed's statement and projections raised inflation outlook for 2026 to 3.6%, signaling persistent inflation risks and influencing market expectations downward for higher inflation thresholds.
U.S. Inflation Jumps to 4.2% in May as Iran War Fuels Energy Shock
Above 4.5% drops to 36%13%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven by a massive 23.5% annual surge in energy costs.
May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest in three years, driven by energy prices
Above 6% surges to 47%27%
The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace in three years, largely due to a 3.9% monthly increase in energy prices amid ongoing disruptions from the Iran war. Energy accounted for over 60% of the monthly CPI increase, highlighting the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on inflation.
May CPI Inflation Hits Three-Year High of 4.2% Amid Iran War Energy Shock
Above 4.5% plunges to 39%20%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annualized CPI inflation rate for May 2026 rose to 4.2%, driven by a spike in energy prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran.
May CPI report shows inflation remains elevated at 4.2% annual rate
Above 5% dips to 30%3%
The BLS reported a 0.5% monthly increase in CPI for May 2026, with a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven mainly by energy prices. This confirmed persistent inflation pressures, keeping market inflation probabilities elevated before the June data release.
US CPI inflation hits 4.2% annually in May 2026 amid energy price surge
May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. This data confirmed persistent inflation pressures and influenced market pricing and Federal Reserve policy outlook.
May 2026 CPI rises 0.5%, annual inflation at 4.2%
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%17%
The BLS reported May 2026 CPI increased 0.5% seasonally adjusted, with annual inflation at 4.2%, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 but still below higher thresholds like 6% or 8%. This data led to a further decline in market probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.
May 2026 energy prices surge, pushing overall CPI higher
Above 6% drops to 3%11%
Energy prices increased significantly in May 2026, with gasoline prices up 7% monthly and 40.5% year-over-year, contributing over 60% of the overall CPI increase. Despite this, the overall inflation rate remained below extreme levels, influencing market expectations downward for very high inflation outcomes.
US inflation rate rises to 4.2% in May 2026 amid energy shock from Iran conflict
Trading Economics reported the US annual inflation rate rose to 4.2% in May 2026, the highest since April 2023, driven by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict, reinforcing market inflation concerns.
BLS releases May 2026 CPI report showing 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%56%
The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% rise over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 but still moderate. Energy prices notably contributed to the increase. This report led to a sharp decline in market prices for inflation exceeding higher thresholds, reflecting tempered inflation expectations.
BLS May 2026 CPI report shows energy prices up 23.5% year-over-year
Above 6% drops to 3%11%
The May 2026 CPI report highlighted a 23.5% increase in energy prices over the past year, driven by gasoline and electricity price rises. This contributed to the overall 4.2% annual inflation figure and influenced market expectations for inflation outcomes.
Regional CPI reports for May 2026 show varied inflation with energy prices driving increases
Above 5% drops to 18%12%
Regional CPI reports for May 2026, including Northeast and Midwest, showed monthly increases driven largely by energy prices, such as gasoline rising over 40% year-over-year in some areas. These regional details supported the national inflation data and influenced market pricing for inflation outcomes.
May 2026 CPI regional reports highlight energy price increases
Above 5% plunges to 14%17%
Regional CPI reports for May 2026 showed energy price increases of over 20% year-over-year in some areas, contributing to the overall CPI rise. These details helped explain persistent inflation in energy costs, influencing market pricing for inflation above moderate levels.
June 2026 CPI report scheduled for July 14, market awaits new data
Above 4.5% drops to 20%5%
The market awaited the June 2026 CPI report scheduled for release on July 14, 2026, with prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5% continuing to decline as anticipation grew that inflation would remain moderate or decline further.
May 2026 CPI report confirms inflation at 4.2%, with energy prices surging
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in May 2026, with a 4.2% annual inflation rate. Energy prices, including gasoline, rose significantly, contributing to inflation persistence. This report influenced market expectations, causing volatility and a brief rise in probabilities for inflation above 4.5%, before a subsequent decline.
BLS scheduled to release June 2026 CPI report on July 14, 2026
The market awaited the June 2026 CPI report scheduled for release on July 14, 2026. Anticipation of this data influenced market prices, with probabilities for inflation above 4.5% stabilizing around 20%, reflecting uncertainty about near-term inflation trends.
June 2026 CPI report scheduled for July 14, market awaits new inflation data
Ahead of the June 2026 CPI release scheduled for July 14, markets showed declining confidence in very high inflation outcomes, reflecting anticipation of moderating inflation. The absence of new data during this period contributed to a gradual decline in prices for all inflation thresholds above 4.5%.
May 2026 CPI inflation rises 4.2% annually, driven by energy prices
Above 4.5% plunges to 22%28%
The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% annual increase, the largest since April 2023, with energy prices up 23.5% year-over-year. This report initially increased market probabilities for inflation above 4.5%, but subsequent data led to declines.
BLS reports May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by energy prices
Above 8% plunges to 3%35%
The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid the Iran conflict. This data raised concerns about persistent inflation pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated through 2026.
May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by energy costs
Above 4.5% plunges to 19%42%
The BLS reported a 4.2% annual inflation rate in May 2026, marking the highest level since April 2023, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid the Iran war. This data caused a brief rise in market probabilities for inflation above 4.5%, before probabilities declined as higher thresholds seemed unlikely.
US Inflation Accelerates to 4.2% in May as Energy Costs Jump 23.5%
Above 4.5% drops to 41%13%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual CPI inflation rose to 4.2% in May, driven by a massive 23.5% year-over-year surge in energy costs due to the conflict with Iran.
June 2026 CPI market reprices higher inflation odds amid energy price concerns
Above 4.5% surges to 61%41%
On June 10, 2026, markets saw a sharp rise in odds for a 0.5% monthly inflation print in June, reflecting concerns about energy price increases and Federal Reserve policy signals. This repricing indicated trader positioning for a hotter inflation print, temporarily increasing probabilities for higher inflation outcomes.
June 2026 CPI report release scheduled for July 14, 2026
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the upcoming release of the June 2026 CPI report on July 14, 2026. Market participants awaited this data to update inflation expectations for the remainder of 2026, influencing prices for all inflation thresholds.
Regional CPI reports in May 2026 show energy-driven inflation increases
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%15%
Regional CPI data for May 2026 from the South, Northeast, and Midwest regions showed monthly increases driven largely by energy prices, reinforcing the national inflation trend and supporting market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.
BLS applies revised seasonal factors for 2026 CPI data
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%15%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics updated seasonal adjustment factors for 2026 CPI data, affecting reported monthly inflation rates and contributing to market reassessment of inflation trends.
BLS reports May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2%, highest in three years
Above 4.5% surges to 59%40%
The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% annual inflation rate, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023, driven largely by a 23.5% rise in energy prices amid Middle East tensions, causing a temporary increase in market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
May 2026 CPI inflation report confirms 4.2% annual rise, core CPI steady
Above 5% rises to 34%2%
The May CPI report confirmed a 4.2% annual inflation rate with core CPI rising 2.9%, indicating persistent but moderate inflation pressures. This data release contributed to a decline in market probabilities for inflation exceeding higher thresholds, reflecting stabilization.
May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023
Above 6% jumps to 18%10%
The May 2026 CPI report indicated inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by surging energy prices amid the Iran war, raising concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, easing from May peak
Above 6% drops to 6%8%
The June 2026 CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decline and a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.5%, marking the first drop in five months. The decrease was driven by a sharp fall in energy prices, which alleviated inflation pressures and led to a significant drop in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.
May 2026 CPI report shows inflation rose 4.2% annually, driven by energy prices
Above 4.5% surges to 59%39%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI increased 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the largest increase since April 2023, with energy prices up 23.5%. This report caused a temporary increase in market prices for inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5%, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation.
U.S. Consumer Price Index rises 0.5% in May 2026, inflation remains elevated
Above 5% drops to 20%9%
The CPI increased 0.5% in May 2026, slightly lower than April's increase but still indicating persistent inflation. This data contributed to a gradual decline in market inflation probabilities as inflation showed signs of moderating.
May 2026 CPI report confirms persistent inflation with 4.2% annual rise
Above 6% drops to 18%8%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed in the May 2026 CPI release that inflation remained elevated at 4.2%, with energy prices up 23.5%, reinforcing market concerns about sustained inflationary pressures.
May 2026 CPI report shows inflation rose 4.2% annually, driven by energy costs
Above 5% surges to 29%20%
The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation, with energy prices up significantly. This report confirmed persistent inflation pressures, causing a temporary increase in market expectations for inflation above 5% and 6%.
New York Fed survey shows stable U.S. public inflation expectations in May
Above 4.5% rises to 64%4%
Despite rising inflation pressures, the New York Fed survey indicated that the U.S. public's inflation outlook remained largely unchanged in May, providing some market reassurance.
US and Iran extend ceasefire, oil prices drop about 20% from 2026 peak
Above 6% drops to 20%14%
In late May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators agreed to extend the ceasefire, leading to a significant drop in oil prices by about 20% from their 2026 highs. This easing of energy prices helped moderate inflation expectations and market volatility.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair amid rising inflation concerns
Above 5% drops to 29%5%
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, at a time of rising inflation and market uncertainty. His leadership marked a potential shift in monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks affecting energy prices.
Iran War Disruptions Drive Energy Prices and Fuel Inflation Fears
Above 4.5% surges to 85%24%
Ongoing hostilities with Iran and disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies caused energy prices to spike, driving the probability of inflation exceeding 4.5% to its peak of 85%.
Markets shift away from Fed rate cut expectations after strong inflation report
Above 5% rises to 35%3%
Following a stronger-than-expected inflation report, markets reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and began pricing in a possibility of a rate hike, reflecting concerns about sustained inflation pressures.
Survey projects inflation rate to hit 6% in Q2 2026
Above 6% surges to 36%27%
A survey of top economists forecasted consumer price inflation to reach 6% in the second quarter of 2026, raising market concerns about higher inflation thresholds but actual CPI data later showed lower levels.
May 2026 CPI inflation report shows 4.2% annual increase amid energy price surge
Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%
The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 23.5% increase in energy prices due to Middle East tensions. This reinforced market concerns about persistent inflation, temporarily increasing probabilities for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
Energy prices rise 23.5% over year ending May 2026 amid Iran war impact
Above 6% drops to 28%6%
Energy prices surged 23.5% year-over-year by May 2026, largely due to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies from the Iran conflict. This energy cost spike contributed significantly to the overall CPI increase and influenced market inflation expectations upward.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8% amid energy price surge from Iran conflict
Above 6% jumps to 34%14%
The April 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, driven by a 3.8% monthly increase in energy prices due to ongoing Middle East conflict. Energy accounted for over 40% of the monthly CPI increase, raising concerns about inflation persistence and Federal Reserve policy.
U.S. Consumer Price Index rises 0.6% in April 2026, continuing inflation pressures
Above 5% dips to 26%1%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.6% seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI for April 2026, following a 0.9% rise in March. This sustained inflation increase contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, keeping probabilities for higher inflation outcomes elevated but starting to moderate.
U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 3.8% in April as Energy Pressures Mount
Above 4.5% jumps to 63%13%
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.8%, the highest level since May 2023, driven by a 3.8% jump in energy prices.
BLS releases May 2026 CPI report showing 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation
Above 6% plunges to 3%17%
The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% rise over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023. Energy prices, especially gasoline, rose significantly, contributing to inflation. Despite this, market probabilities for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10% dropped sharply, reflecting expectations that inflation would not reach very high levels.
May 2026 CPI report shows 0.5% monthly increase, annual inflation at 4.2%
Above 5% plunges to 13%22%
The May 2026 CPI release reported a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions. This data reinforced expectations of persistent inflation but also signaled some moderation, leading to a decline in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8% annually amid energy price surge
The CPI increased 3.8% year over year in April 2026, up from 3.3% in March, driven by surging gas prices due to the Iran conflict, raising market concerns about persistent inflation pressures.
Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.
US CPI inflation rises 3.8% annually in April 2026, highest since May 2023
April 2026 CPI data showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and driven by energy and food price increases. This reinforced concerns about inflation persistence and influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
April 2026 CPI inflation jumps to 3.8%, highest since May 2023
Above 4.5% plunges to 19%19%
The April CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.8% annual inflation rate, the highest in nearly three years, with energy prices rising 3.8% and shelter costs climbing, intensifying inflation concerns.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated
Above 5% drops to 19%7%
The April 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing elevated inflation but with signs of moderation. This report influenced market expectations, causing some volatility but overall a downward trend in inflation probability above 5%.
May 2026 CPI report shows inflation rose to 4.2%, highest since April 2023
Above 4.5% surges to 59%40%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase, the largest in over a year, driven largely by rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. This spike caused a temporary increase in market inflation expectations, especially for thresholds above 4.5% and 5%.
April CPI Inflation Climbs to 3.8% Driven by Surging Energy Costs
Above 4.5% jumps to 58%8%
The April CPI report showed headline inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2023, driven by sharply higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
April 2026 CPI data shows 0.6% monthly rise, annual inflation at 3.8%
The April CPI report showed inflation rising 0.6% monthly and 3.8% annually, the highest since May 2023, driven by energy and shelter costs, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market pricing downward for very high inflation outcomes.
CPI inflation rises to 3.8% annually in April 2026 amid energy price surge
Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by rising energy prices and tariffs. This reinforced concerns about inflation persistence and influenced market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.
April 2026 CPI rises 0.6% month-over-month, signaling persistent inflation
Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%
The BLS reported a 0.6% seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI for April 2026, continuing the trend of elevated inflation. This report contributed to a temporary rise in market inflation expectations, especially for the above 4.5% threshold.
BLS Reports Annualized CPI Inflation Rate for April 2026 at 3.8 Percent
Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annualized CPI inflation rate for April 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March, signaling a steady acceleration in consumer prices.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated
Above 4.5% rises to 63%2%
The BLS reported a 0.6% increase in the CPI for April 2026, continuing the trend of persistent inflation. This report contributed to market uncertainty and volatility in inflation expectations, with some upward pressure on the probability of inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market rate hike expectations
Above 5% rises to 30%3%
A stronger inflation report in May 2026 led financial markets to adjust expectations, moving away from rate cuts and pricing in a growing possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This reflected concerns about rising prices across the U.S. economy, particularly energy costs.
April 2026 CPI shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated
Above 5% jumps to 26%8%
The April 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing the trend of elevated inflation. This sustained inflationary pressure kept market expectations for higher inflation elevated.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, continuing moderate inflation
Above 6% plunges to 5%42%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, indicating persistent but moderate inflation. This data contributed to market reassessment of inflation probabilities, particularly lowering chances of very high inflation outcomes.
Fast food chains launch value menus amid high food prices
Above 4% surges to 73%32%
Major fast food chains like Wendy's, Taco Bell, and McDonald's introduced new value menus in May 2026 to attract cost-conscious consumers facing 4.1% higher dining costs. This consumer response to persistent food price inflation supported market expectations for inflation above 4% but limited expectations for very high inflation.
May 2026 CPI inflation report shows annual inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023
Above 6% jumps to 26%8%
The May 2026 CPI report revealed inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran war, pushing inflation expectations higher and causing market prices for higher inflation thresholds to increase.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling economic pivot
Above 6% drops to 10%8%
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking a shift from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market. This rate cut led to a sharp decline in market prices for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%, reflecting expectations of easing inflationary pressures.
May 2026 CPI report shows inflation rose to 4.2% amid energy price surge
Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May CPI report showing a 4.2% annual inflation increase, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 23.5% rise in energy prices due to the Iran war. This heightened inflation concerns and caused market prices for inflation exceeding 4.5%, 5%, and 6% to spike.
Inflation surges to highest level in three years amid Iran war energy shock
Above 4.5% surges to 82%32%
May 2026 CPI data showed a 4.2% annual increase, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 40% rise in gasoline prices due to the Iran war. This spike in energy costs pushed inflation expectations and market prices for higher inflation outcomes to peak, reflecting fears of sustained inflation above 4.5%.
PepsiCo cuts prices on snacks to regain customers amid inflation pressures
Above 4.5% surges to 75%34%
PepsiCo announced price cuts on popular snack brands to address weakened demand caused by years of price hikes. This move reflects consumer sensitivity to inflation and may influence inflation expectations, particularly for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.
PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation
Above 5% jumps to 35%7%
PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points
Above 6% drops to 12%6%
In May 2026, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a pivot from fighting inflation to supporting a softening labor market. This move was interpreted as a sign that inflation pressures were easing, which contributed to a sharp decline in market inflation probabilities, especially for higher inflation thresholds.
April 2026 CPI report shows inflation remains elevated at 4.2% annually
Above 4.5% surges to 35%17%
The May 2026 CPI report (released June 10) indicated inflation rose 4.2% over the past year, driven largely by energy price increases. This report caused a temporary increase in inflation expectations, especially for the above 4.5% and above 5% outcomes, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation pressures.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions
Above 6% dips to 14%4%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% during its April meeting, citing elevated inflation and rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. This cautious stance influenced market expectations, keeping inflation risk premiums elevated but stable.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in April 2026, citing elevated inflation partly due to rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. This cautious stance maintained market expectations of moderate inflation.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% during Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair, citing elevated inflation driven by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and a cautious labor market. This reinforced market expectations of sustained inflation risks.
FOMC minutes reveal concerns over elevated inflation and energy price shocks
Above 6% rises to 10%4%
The April 28-29 FOMC minutes indicated inflation remained elevated and was moving higher, led by sharp energy price increases. Some members worried that sustained energy price shocks and tariffs could embed inflation expectations, influencing market inflation outlooks.
Amazon imposes 3.5% fuel surcharge amid Iran war-driven fuel price rise
Above 4% jumps to 54%13%
Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on third-party sellers starting mid-April 2026 due to elevated fuel costs from the ongoing Iran war. Rising fuel and logistics costs contributed to inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation above 4% and 5%.
U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs
Above 4% jumps to 48%7%
In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.
Australia’s central bank raises interest rate to 3.85% amid surging inflation
Above 4% jumps to 49%8%
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark interest rate after inflation rose to 3.8% for the 12 months through December, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This global inflationary environment influenced market expectations for U.S. inflation outcomes above 4% and 5%.
April 2026 CPI inflation rises 3.8% annually, exceeding expectations
Above 5% jumps to 26%9%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for April 2026, slightly above the 3.7% consensus forecast. Energy prices surged 3.8% for the month, contributing to inflation concerns and temporarily boosting market expectations for higher inflation thresholds.
BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% monthly, signaling persistent inflation
Above 5% drops to 18%12%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing the trend of persistent inflation but at a moderate pace. This data contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, tempering expectations for very high inflation in 2026.
April 2026 CPI report shows inflation remains elevated but stable
Above 4.5% rises to 25%1%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing a trend of persistent inflation. This report maintained market expectations for moderate inflation, supporting prices for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, moderating inflation
Above 6% dips to 10%4%
The CPI for April 2026 increased 0.6% seasonally adjusted, indicating a moderation from previous months. This report contributed to a decline in market prices for inflation above 6%, reflecting reduced expectations for very high inflation.
Federal Reserve releases March 2026 CPI data showing 0.9% monthly increase
The BLS reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted increase in CPI for March 2026, indicating persistent inflation pressures and contributing to market expectations of elevated inflation for the year.
March 2026 CPI inflation spikes to 3.3% driven by Iran war energy shock
Above 6% jumps to 26%13%
The March 2026 CPI report showed a 3.3% annual increase, up from 2.4% in February, driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran war. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% in March, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly inflation increase, raising concerns about persistent inflation.
April 2026 CPI report shows inflation increase of 0.6% monthly
Above 5% drops to 13%6%
The April 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.6% monthly increase, with energy and shelter costs contributing. Despite this, the annual inflation rate remained moderate, and market prices for inflation above 5% and 6% continued to decline, reflecting expectations of controlled inflation.
US CPI inflation rises 3.3% annually in March 2026 amid Iran conflict
The March 2026 CPI report showed inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. This spike raised concerns about inflation persistence and influenced market pricing of inflation risk.
March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% amid energy price surge
Above 4.5% surges to 38%29%
The March 2026 CPI report showed inflation increasing to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices due to the Iran war, causing markets to adjust inflation expectations upward.
BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% monthly, inflation moderates
Above 6% drops to 10%5%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, down from 0.9% in March, indicating moderating inflation pressures. This contributed to market declines in probabilities for inflation exceeding 6% and higher thresholds as inflation appeared to be cooling.
April 2026 CPI rises 0.6%, inflation remains elevated but stable
Above 5% dips to 14%4%
The BLS released April 2026 CPI data showing a 0.6% increase seasonally adjusted, indicating inflation remains elevated but stable. This data contributed to a gradual decline in market probabilities for inflation above higher thresholds as inflation did not accelerate further.
U.S. Consumer Prices Spike 3.3% in March as Iran Conflict Drives Energy Costs Higher
Above 5% drops to 24%12%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices jumped in March, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the outbreak of hostilities with Iran.
March 2026 CPI report shows 0.9% monthly increase, inflation pressures rise
Above 6% jumps to 13%6%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index for March 2026, signaling rising inflation pressures. This report contributed to market expectations of sustained inflation, influencing price movements in inflation prediction markets.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated
Above 6% dips to 10%4%
The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, continuing the trend of persistent inflation. This report maintained market expectations for inflation above moderate thresholds but did not support very high inflation outcomes, contributing to price declines for above 6%, 8%, and 10% outcomes.
April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated
Above 4.5% surges to 67%36%
The BLS released April 2026 CPI data showing a 0.6% monthly increase and sustained inflation pressures, particularly from energy and shelter costs. This report contributed to market volatility and a temporary rise in inflation odds, especially for the above 4.5% threshold.
US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire, easing oil prices
Above 6% drops to 20%6%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire, announced by President Trump. This agreement led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a surge in stock markets, providing some relief to inflation pressures caused by the conflict.
S&P 500 plunges nearly 5% amid trade war fears and inflation concerns
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
Stock market declines driven by fears of escalating trade tensions and persistent inflation pressures reflected investor worries about economic growth and inflation control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.
Federal Reserve inflation forecast rises amid Iran war energy shock
Above 6% drops to 40%7%
The Federal Reserve's inflation forecast increased notably due to the Iran war causing a historic energy supply shock, leading to soaring crude oil and gas prices. This pushed inflation expectations higher and reduced optimism for interest rate cuts in 2026, impacting market inflation probabilities.
US-Iran war begins, causing oil prices to surge over 55%
Above 8% plunges to 5%33%
The 2026 Iran war started with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, leading to a major disruption in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices surged from around $72 to nearly $120 per barrel by late March, triggering a global energy crisis and inflationary pressures in the US.
OECD sharply revises U.S. inflation forecast upward to 4.2% for 2026
The OECD released a forecast raising U.S. inflation expectations for 2026 to 4.2%, much higher than the Federal Reserve's estimate, signaling increased inflation risks and influencing market pricing toward higher inflation outcomes.
US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March 2026
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in March 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation concerns. This decision influenced market expectations by suggesting a pause in tightening, which affected inflation risk pricing.
Federal Reserve holds rates citing Iran war oil shock complicating inflation outlook
The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.50% due to the oil price surge from the Iran conflict, which introduced significant inflation risks. Fed Chair Powell emphasized elevated uncertainty and the need to avoid premature easing, impacting market inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing a sharp rise in oil prices from the Iran conflict as a significant upside risk to inflation. This geopolitical event increased inflation expectations and reduced market optimism for rate cuts in 2026, impacting inflation outcome prices especially above 5% and 6%.
Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook
The Fed maintained rates at 4.25%-4.50%, highlighting the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices as a major upside risk to inflation. This geopolitical shock led to upward revisions in inflation forecasts and reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2026, pushing market inflation probabilities higher.
Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook
Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously held the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing the surge in oil prices due to the Iran conflict as a major upside risk to inflation. This shifted market expectations away from rate cuts in 2026 and increased inflation concerns.
Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation forecast amid Iran war oil shock
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
At the March 2026 meeting, the Fed quietly raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, citing the significant oil price surge caused by the Iran conflict as a major upside risk. This revision increased market concerns about persistent inflation and reduced expectations for rate cuts.
Hiring slowdown in December challenges Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts
Above 5% jumps to 24%6%
Data showed sluggish hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment, complicating the Fed's dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. This increased uncertainty about future interest rate moves, affecting inflation expectations and market pricing for outcomes above 5% and 6%.
BLS reports February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually
Above 6% dips to 6%2%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.3% monthly increase in CPI for February 2026 and a 2.4% rise over the past 12 months, matching market expectations and indicating moderate inflation pressures.
February 2026 CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year
Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual CPI inflation rate for February 2026 held steady at 2.4%, matching January's rate and consensus expectations, with energy prices rebounding slightly.
February 2026 CPI inflation steady at 2.4% despite rising energy costs
Above 5% rises to 10%1%
The February 2026 CPI report showed inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, with energy prices rising 0.6% for the month. The report was affected by data collection issues from the prior government shutdown, but inflation remained above the Fed's target, reinforcing expectations of steady monetary policy.
March 2026 CPI rises 0.9%, higher monthly increase but inflation still moderate
Above 6% jumps to 12%5%
The BLS reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted increase in CPI for March 2026, a higher monthly rise than previous months but still within moderate inflation levels. This caused some short-term market uncertainty but did not significantly raise probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.
US wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war driving energy costs higher
Above 4% surges to 32%17%
The Labor Department reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the producer price index in March, the largest in over three years, driven by an 8.5% surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. This heightened inflation concerns and influenced market prices, especially for inflation above 4% and 5%.
Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak
Above 4% surges to 33%18%
The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.
Hiring slowed in December despite Fed rate cuts
Above 5% jumps to 17%8%
December 2025 jobs data showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, defying Federal Reserve efforts to boost the labor market through interest rate cuts. Sluggish hiring and low wage growth tempered inflation expectations, causing fluctuations in market prices for higher inflation thresholds.
March 2026 CPI inflation rises 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price surge
Above 6% rises to 14%4%
The March 2026 CPI report showed a 3.3% annual increase, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. This spike raised inflation concerns and increased market probabilities for higher inflation outcomes.
Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply
Above 4% rises to 15%3%
The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.
January 2026 CPI report shows 2.4% annual inflation amid tariff pressures
Above 5% drops to 8%11%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the last 12 months in January 2026, with tariffs imposed by the Trump administration contributing to upward price pressures. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, setting the stage for cautious monetary policy.
January 2026 CPI shows 0.2% monthly increase, inflation remains moderate
Above 5% dips to 10%2%
The BLS released January 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, indicating continued moderate inflation. This data supported market views that inflation was not accelerating sharply, keeping probabilities for inflation above higher thresholds low.
Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, emphasizing patience and assessment of previous rate cuts. This statement supported market expectations of a stable interest rate environment, reducing inflation risk premiums.
Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change rates in 2026, supporting the view of stable monetary policy and contributing to lower inflation expectations.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair
Above 5% drops to 14%5%
President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in monetary policy. Warsh's hawkish reputation initially triggered risk-off flows, impacting market expectations for inflation and interest rates.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid mixed economic signals
The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic growth but persistent inflation concerns. The decision was not unanimous, with some members favoring rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about inflation's trajectory. This cautious stance set the tone for inflation expectations early in 2026.
Fed holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell emphasized data dependency for future decisions, signaling no immediate rate cuts.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid inflation concerns
The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, balancing solid economic growth with elevated inflation risks. The decision reflected uncertainty in the economic outlook and a commitment to monitor inflation and employment data closely, influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation pressures
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing ongoing inflation concerns and steady economic growth. This cautious stance signaled that inflation remained a challenge, supporting market expectations for persistent inflation above moderate levels.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%
Above 6% plunges to 8%39%
The Federal Reserve announced it would maintain interest rates steady in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation pressures. This decision ended a series of rate cuts and contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, lowering prices for higher inflation outcomes.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%
Above 5% dips to 15%4%
The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation pressures. This decision maintained market expectations that inflation would remain elevated but controlled, affecting inflation probability prices.
Labor Department delays January jobs report due to government shutdown
Above 4% dips to 9%3%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of the January 2026 jobs report, creating uncertainty about labor market conditions. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in inflation expectations, as labor market strength influences inflation dynamics.
Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.
US voters overwhelmingly oppose taking Greenland by military force
Above 4% dips to 12%2%
Polls revealed nearly 9 in 10 Americans opposed military action to acquire Greenland, reflecting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. While not directly linked to inflation, such geopolitical risks can influence energy prices and inflation expectations, indirectly affecting market pricing for inflation outcomes.
December 2025 CPI shows 2.7% annual inflation with rising shelter and food costs
The BLS reported a 0.3% monthly increase in December 2025 CPI, with a 2.7% annual rise driven by shelter and food price increases, sustaining moderate inflation expectations in the market.
BLS releases January 2026 CPI data showing moderate inflation
Above 8% plunges to 5%33%
The January 2026 CPI report showed a 0.2% monthly increase and continued moderate inflation, supporting market views that inflation would remain below high thresholds throughout 2026, further reducing prices for outcomes above 8% and 10%.
December 2025 CPI inflation steady at 2.7%, as expected
Above 4.5% dips to 7%2%
The BLS reported December 2025 CPI inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from November, confirming the persistence of moderate inflation. This steady reading maintained market expectations that inflation would not spike, contributing to continued low probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.
December 2025 CPI holds at 2.7 % YoY, unchanged from November
Above 5% dips to 7%1%
The BLS released the December 2025 CPI (published Jan 13, 2026) with inflation unchanged at 2.7 % YoY. The lack of any increase reignited expectations of continued disinflation, driving the "Above 5%" and "Above 6%" odds down to single‑digit levels (e.g., 7 % on 2026‑01‑18).
BLS reports November 2025 CPI inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, below forecasts and indicating a cooling inflation environment. This report ended a data drought caused by a government shutdown and reassured markets that inflation pressures were easing, leading to a drop in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.
BLS Releases November 2025 CPI Showing Cooler-Than-Expected 2.7% Inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the delayed November CPI report showing headline inflation rose at a 2.7% annual pace, which was cooler than the 3.1% economists had forecasted.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, signaling a cooling of inflation pressures and raising hopes for easier monetary policy. This report contributed to a decline in market prices for higher inflation outcomes above 5% and 6%.
BLS reports November 2025 inflation rate at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, down from 3.0% in September, signaling easing inflation pressures and contributing to a decline in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.
BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 4.5% plunges to 19%31%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, below forecasts and signaling a cooling inflation trend. This report ended a data drought caused by the October 2025 government shutdown and reassured markets about inflation moderation, leading to a decline in inflation expectations.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing a 2.7% annual inflation rate, below forecasts and signaling cooling inflation pressures after a government shutdown delayed October data. This report caused market optimism about inflation easing.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, below forecasts, signaling easing inflation pressures after a government shutdown delayed October data. This positive surprise likely contributed to lower market expectations for high inflation in 2026.
November 2025 CPI reports 2.7% annual inflation amid data collection gaps
Above 6% dips to 3%1%
The BLS reported a 0.2% increase over two months from September to November 2025, with a 2.7% annual rise, noting data collection gaps due to federal government appropriations lapse, which maintained market expectations of moderate inflation.
November 2025 CPI shows 2.7 % YoY inflation, lower than expected
Above 5% dips to 8%1%
The BLS released the first post‑shutdown CPI for November 2025, showing headline inflation at 2.7 % YoY – well below forecasts. The softer number caused the "Above 5%" contract to fall further (from 9 % on 2025‑12‑01 to 8 % on 2025‑12‑27) and pushed "Above 6%" down sharply.
Fed to keep policy rate steady after latest CPI readings
Above 8% dips to 5%2%
The Fed signaled it would hold rates steady at its Jan‑28/29 meeting, citing the recent noisy CPI data. The expectation of a pause removed upside‑inflation risk, causing "Above 8%" to dip from 7 % to 5 % by 2025‑12‑23.
December 2025 CPI report shows inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year
Above 6% plunges to 3%44%
The December 2025 CPI report confirmed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with food prices rising 3.1% and energy prices increasing 2.3%. This steady inflation rate reinforced market expectations that inflation would not exceed higher thresholds in 2026, contributing to price declines for outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.
Treasury unveils modest tax‑rebate plan to boost consumer spending
Above 5% dips to 9%1%
The Treasury released a mid‑year fiscal plan that projected modest tax rebates, easing consumer pressure. The news briefly lifted optimism for a slower‑inflation path, lowering "Above 5%" to 9 % on 2025‑12‑10.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic concerns
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut in 2025, aiming to support the economy amid mixed inflation and labor market signals. This move was met with market optimism but highlighted ongoing inflation challenges.
BLS reports 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase for December 2025
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%30%
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December 2025 CPI report showing a 2.7% increase over the prior year, with shelter, food, and energy contributing to the rise. This moderate inflation reading tempered market expectations for very high inflation in 2026, leading to a decline in prices for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.
Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data
Above 4% dips to 14%4%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.
Grocery price inflation surges with fastest monthly pace since 2022
Above 4.5% jumps to 56%6%
Government data showed food prices rising sharply, with coffee and ground beef prices up nearly 20% and 15.5% respectively year-over-year in December. This defied claims of falling grocery prices and contributed to inflation concerns, supporting market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
Consumer prices rose 2.8% in November 2025 from a year earlier, slightly higher than October's 2.7%, indicating inflation remained stubbornly elevated. This data reassured the Fed about the economy's solid footing but suggested inflation would stay above target, supporting higher inflation market prices.
Trump administration rolls out new tariffs on consumer goods
Above 10% drops to 15%5%
The administration announced new tariffs on imported appliances, furniture and vehicles. Analysts warned that such tariffs could add upward pressure to CPI components, briefly lifting the "Above 10%" probability (from 20 % to 15 % on 2025‑11‑27).
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates three times to counter softer jobs market
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times to stimulate the economy amid a slowing labor market. This monetary policy action aimed to support growth but raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, below expectations
Above 4.5% plunges to 21%29%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, lower than the forecasted 3.1%. This report ended a data drought caused by the October government shutdown and reassured markets about easing inflation pressures, leading to a drop in inflation probability prices.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected
Above 5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, below forecasts. This lower-than-expected inflation reading reduced market expectations for high inflation in 2026, causing prices for higher inflation outcomes to drop.
BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% annual rate
Above 5% drops to 9%10%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating inflation rose 2.7% year-over-year, lower than expected and signaling easing inflation pressures after a government shutdown delayed October data. This report contributed to market declines in inflation expectations above 5% and higher thresholds.
BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%
Above 4.5% plunges to 20%30%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, lower than expected and signaling easing inflation pressures. This report influenced market expectations downward for high inflation outcomes in 2026.
Wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war energy price spike
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Iran war caused energy prices to soar, pushing U.S. wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2025, the largest increase in over three years. This surge in wholesale prices signaled inflationary pressures that influenced market expectations for higher inflation in 2026, particularly affecting the 'Above 4%' and 'Above 6%' outcomes.
Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November amid strong consumer spending
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Commerce Department reported consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October, signaling persistent inflation. Solid consumer spending suggested the economy remained robust, reducing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and supporting higher inflation probabilities above 4%.
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7% annual rate
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report indicating inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected and signaling a cooling trend. This report influenced market expectations by reducing the perceived risk of very high inflation in 2026.
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