The 95.3% market-implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027 reflects the institution’s entrenched statutory independence under the Federal Reserve Act and the complete absence of viable legislative momentum. A 2025 House bill to repeal the Act and dissolve the Board of Governors has remained stalled in committee with negligible support, while congressional priorities and bipartisan recognition of the central bank’s role in monetary policy stability have precluded further action. Recent Fed leadership transitions and proposals to narrow its dual mandate have focused on operational reforms rather than dissolution, with Treasury yields and equity markets continuing to embed ongoing Fed functions through year-end 2026. Only an unprecedented constitutional crisis or supermajority realignment could alter this trajectory, both viewed as remote given multi-year legal and procedural barriers.