Switzerland leads trader pricing due to multiple credible reports that Geneva will host the upcoming high-level session to finalize or sign elements of the US-Iran agreement following recent indirect negotiations. Pakistani mediators and officials have publicly referenced Switzerland as the venue for a June 14 or imminent follow-up round after earlier rounds in Oman, Islamabad, and prior Geneva sessions. Qatar retains secondary positioning from hosting a May delegation meeting on ceasefire extensions, while low probabilities for Pakistan, Oman, and other locations reflect that those sites facilitated earlier or preparatory talks without confirmation for the immediate next step. The slim chance assigned to no meeting by June 30 aligns with ongoing diplomatic momentum and public statements signaling continued engagement before the month ends.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTehran and Washington finalize memorandum of understanding to end war, Qatar welcomes deal
Switzerland surges to 70%44%
The US and Iran announced finalization of an MoU ending the war and US naval blockade, with Qatar's Foreign Ministry expressing support, boosting market prices for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting venues and collapsing prices for no meeting and Pakistan.
US stock market rallies on reports of preliminary US-Iran peace framework
Qatar surges to 51%46%
Financial markets reacted positively to news of a preliminary diplomatic framework between the US and Iran, reflecting increased confidence in a diplomatic meeting occurring soon, particularly in Switzerland and Qatar.
Pakistan Prime Minister announces US-Iran peace deal to be signed in Switzerland on June 19
Switzerland surges to 72%32%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that a peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached and will be officially signed in Switzerland on June 19, confirming Switzerland as the next diplomatic meeting location.
US and Iran announce peace deal signing ceremony in Switzerland
Switzerland surges to 73%50%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
US and Iran agree to sign ceasefire framework in Geneva
Switzerland surges to 70%45%
On June 14, 2026, reports indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
US-Iran negotiations enter critical phase with potential framework agreement
Switzerland jumps to 26%5%
Multiple reports confirmed significant progress toward a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, increasing market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland and Qatar, and reducing the likelihood of no meeting by June 30.
US and Iran reach agreement with planned signing in Switzerland
Switzerland jumps to 36%10%
Reports on June 14, 2026, indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, causing a sharp rise in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location. This was supported by President Trump's announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US naval blockade.
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
US and Iran signal peace deal near as negotiations focus on Hormuz Strait and sanctions
Switzerland surges to 43%41%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to an agreement to end the war, focusing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, boosting market confidence in a near-term diplomatic meeting, especially in neutral venues like Switzerland.
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
US and Iran reach tentative agreement amid ongoing tensions
Switzerland jumps to 11%6%
On May 28, 2026, US officials announced a tentative agreement had been reached in talks with Iran, including lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and starting a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump had not yet signed off, and Iranian officials had not commented, causing some market volatility.
Iranian delegation visits Qatar for talks on US ceasefire extension and peace deal
Qatar rises to 7%1%
Senior Iranian officials traveled to Doha for negotiations on ending the war with the US, reflecting Qatar's role as a key mediator alongside Pakistan. This event increased market optimism for Qatar as a potential meeting location.
US and Iran continue diplomatic talks amid elevated military presence in Middle East
Despite ongoing military tensions, the US and Iran remained engaged in high-level diplomatic discussions, maintaining market interest in a meeting but with uncertainty about location, keeping prices for multiple venues active.
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement with Iran and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland rises to 4%3%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This boosted optimism for a diplomatic meeting and increased confidence in Switzerland as the venue, while Pakistan's likelihood declined.
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
President Trump announces near agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland rises to 5%2%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, especially increasing optimism for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting locations.
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 16%15%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling a breakthrough in talks. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland, with prices for Switzerland rising and Pakistan declining.
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
President Trump announces major progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 72%22%
Trump declared that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings, especially in Switzerland and Qatar.
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for resumed talks
Pakistan plunges to 1%51%
US lead negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, maintaining uncertainty about the meeting location.
US lead negotiators Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for resumed talks
Pakistan drops to 65%11%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting there, maintaining uncertainty about the meeting location.
US lead negotiators Kushner and Witkoff travel to Pakistan for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US lead negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as a meeting location despite some Iranian officials denying planned meetings there.
US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff travel to Pakistan for renewed talks with Iran
US special envoys returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as the meeting location despite Iranian denials of planned meetings there.
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for second round of US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 57%6%
After the blockade, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a second round of talks, with Islamabad and Geneva as potential venues. This speculation caused some price movement, with Islamabad remaining favored but Geneva gaining slight attention.
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Islamabad, Pakistan
The US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad for intensive negotiations aimed at stabilizing the ceasefire and exploring diplomatic solutions. This event marked Pakistan as a key mediator and venue, initially boosting market confidence in Pakistan as the meeting location.
Pakistan mediates ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations amid war damage talks
Pakistan surges to 86%34%
Diplomatic delegations, mediated by Pakistan, were actively modifying a peace framework to end the US-Iran war, focusing on compensation, sanctions, and maritime control. This reinforced Pakistan's role as a key diplomatic venue, supporting high market prices for Pakistan early in the window.
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