Trump administration signals following New START's February 2026 expiration, including President Trump's October 2025 statements and a March 24 senior official's refusal to rule out underground explosive tests at Nevada National Security Site, have fueled debate on resuming U.S. nuclear testing after a 34-year moratorium. However, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism, pricing just 13% odds for a test by December 31, 2026, amid multi-year preparation needs for infrastructure, environmental reviews, and congressional approval—particularly from Nevada senators. Stockpile stewardship simulations sustain the arsenal without live tests, while CTBT diplomatic pressures and international backlash pose barriers; no scheduled hearings or votes loom to shift dynamics soon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$639,462 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026 року
1%
30 вересня 2026 року
8%
31 грудня 2026 року
13%
$639,462 Обс.
30 червня 2026 року
$23,204 Обс.
1%
30 вересня 2026 року
$2,149 Обс.
8%
31 грудня 2026 року
$3,890 Обс.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration signals following New START's February 2026 expiration, including President Trump's October 2025 statements and a March 24 senior official's refusal to rule out underground explosive tests at Nevada National Security Site, have fueled debate on resuming U.S. nuclear testing after a 34-year moratorium. However, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism, pricing just 13% odds for a test by December 31, 2026, amid multi-year preparation needs for infrastructure, environmental reviews, and congressional approval—particularly from Nevada senators. Stockpile stewardship simulations sustain the arsenal without live tests, while CTBT diplomatic pressures and international backlash pose barriers; no scheduled hearings or votes loom to shift dynamics soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$639,462Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration signals following New START's February 2026 expiration, including President Trump's October 2025 statements and a March 24 senior official's refusal to rule out underground explosive tests at Nevada National Security Site, have fueled debate on resuming U.S. nuclear testing after a 34-year moratorium. However, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism, pricing just 13% odds for a test by December 31, 2026, amid multi-year preparation needs for infrastructure, environmental reviews, and congressional approval—particularly from Nevada senators. Stockpile stewardship simulations sustain the arsenal without live tests, while CTBT diplomatic pressures and international backlash pose barriers; no scheduled hearings or votes loom to shift dynamics soon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$639,462Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration signals following New START's February 2026 expiration, including President Trump's October 2025 statements and a March 24 senior official's refusal to rule out underground explosive tests at Nevada National Security Site, have fueled debate on resuming U.S. nuclear testing after a 34-year moratorium. However, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism, pricing just 13% odds for a test by December 31, 2026, amid multi-year preparation needs for infrastructure, environmental reviews, and congressional approval—particularly from Nevada senators. Stockpile stewardship simulations sustain the arsenal without live tests, while CTBT diplomatic pressures and international backlash pose barriers; no scheduled hearings or votes loom to shift dynamics soon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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