The United States has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations verified by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing—citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia—prompted National Defense Authorization Act provisions authorizing underground tests, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified no explosive blasts are planned, focusing on subcritical experiments. February 2026 State Department remarks signaled readiness for matched low-yield tests, yet Nevada congressional opposition and decayed infrastructure requiring years and billions to revive keep trader consensus skeptical. No detonations have occurred amid Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, with FY2026 budgets prioritizing non-explosive R&D ahead of potential escalation signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$664,780 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026 року
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
6%
31 грудня 2026 року
9%
$664,780 Обс.
30 червня 2026 року
$38,761 Обс.
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
$5,584 Обс.
6%
31 грудня 2026 року
$10,216 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations verified by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing—citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia—prompted National Defense Authorization Act provisions authorizing underground tests, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified no explosive blasts are planned, focusing on subcritical experiments. February 2026 State Department remarks signaled readiness for matched low-yield tests, yet Nevada congressional opposition and decayed infrastructure requiring years and billions to revive keep trader consensus skeptical. No detonations have occurred amid Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, with FY2026 budgets prioritizing non-explosive R&D ahead of potential escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$664,780Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations verified by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing—citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia—prompted National Defense Authorization Act provisions authorizing underground tests, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified no explosive blasts are planned, focusing on subcritical experiments. February 2026 State Department remarks signaled readiness for matched low-yield tests, yet Nevada congressional opposition and decayed infrastructure requiring years and billions to revive keep trader consensus skeptical. No detonations have occurred amid Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, with FY2026 budgets prioritizing non-explosive R&D ahead of potential escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$664,780Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has adhered to a voluntary nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground explosion in 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship simulations verified by the National Nuclear Security Administration. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing—citing alleged low-yield activities by China and Russia—prompted National Defense Authorization Act provisions authorizing underground tests, but Energy Secretary Chris Wright clarified no explosive blasts are planned, focusing on subcritical experiments. February 2026 State Department remarks signaled readiness for matched low-yield tests, yet Nevada congressional opposition and decayed infrastructure requiring years and billions to revive keep trader consensus skeptical. No detonations have occurred amid Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms, with FY2026 budgets prioritizing non-explosive R&D ahead of potential escalation signals.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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