The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with no detonation recorded despite President Trump’s late-2025 statements directing planning for tests to match alleged activities by Russia and China. Recent U.S. actions center on a September 30, 2026, non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site designed to refine detection of low-yield or decoupled blasts, framed as a response to concerns over foreign compliance rather than preparation for a U.S. test. Diplomatic talks with China on its nuclear expansion continue alongside stockpile stewardship programs that rely on simulations and subcritical experiments. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for a 2026 test because actual explosive testing would require extensive site preparations, face Senate and international pushback, risk escalation, and depart from decades of policy, with no confirmed timeline or infrastructure moves indicating near-term resolution.