President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on a U.S. nuclear test. Subsequent administration clarifications distinguished between explosive yield tests and subcritical or delivery-system activities, while New START’s expiration in early 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint. The United States has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and maintains a voluntary moratorium, with technical assessments indicating 24–36 months or longer to prepare the Nevada National Security Site for an underground test. Budget requests emphasize stockpile stewardship and modernization rather than immediate test execution. Low probabilities for any 2026 resolution reflect these timelines and the absence of further presidential orders or site activations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$667,461 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026 року
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
9%
$667,461 Обс.
30 червня 2026 року
$40,114 Обс.
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
$6,656 Обс.
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
$10,472 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on a U.S. nuclear test. Subsequent administration clarifications distinguished between explosive yield tests and subcritical or delivery-system activities, while New START’s expiration in early 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint. The United States has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and maintains a voluntary moratorium, with technical assessments indicating 24–36 months or longer to prepare the Nevada National Security Site for an underground test. Budget requests emphasize stockpile stewardship and modernization rather than immediate test execution. Low probabilities for any 2026 resolution reflect these timelines and the absence of further presidential orders or site activations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$667,461Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on a U.S. nuclear test. Subsequent administration clarifications distinguished between explosive yield tests and subcritical or delivery-system activities, while New START’s expiration in early 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint. The United States has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and maintains a voluntary moratorium, with technical assessments indicating 24–36 months or longer to prepare the Nevada National Security Site for an underground test. Budget requests emphasize stockpile stewardship and modernization rather than immediate test execution. Low probabilities for any 2026 resolution reflect these timelines and the absence of further presidential orders or site activations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$667,461Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, following reports of their activities, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on a U.S. nuclear test. Subsequent administration clarifications distinguished between explosive yield tests and subcritical or delivery-system activities, while New START’s expiration in early 2026 removed a key bilateral constraint. The United States has conducted no explosive nuclear tests since 1992 and maintains a voluntary moratorium, with technical assessments indicating 24–36 months or longer to prepare the Nevada National Security Site for an underground test. Budget requests emphasize stockpile stewardship and modernization rather than immediate test execution. Low probabilities for any 2026 resolution reflect these timelines and the absence of further presidential orders or site activations.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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