President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing in response to foreign programs initiated policy review, yet implementation remains stalled amid technical, legal, and diplomatic constraints. As of March 2026, officials confirmed ongoing assessments without a decision on underground explosive tests, consistent with the 1992 moratorium and stockpile stewardship program that has sustained reliability without explosions. Significant barriers include multi-year site readiness timelines, congressional opposition, state-level resistance in potential test locations, and risks of spurring arms competition with Russia and China. These factors sustain trader consensus on low probabilities of any test by late 2026, with scheduled oversight hearings and appropriations decisions as potential near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$770,068 Обс.
Sep 29, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
4%
$770,068 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,189 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$52,068 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing in response to foreign programs initiated policy review, yet implementation remains stalled amid technical, legal, and diplomatic constraints. As of March 2026, officials confirmed ongoing assessments without a decision on underground explosive tests, consistent with the 1992 moratorium and stockpile stewardship program that has sustained reliability without explosions. Significant barriers include multi-year site readiness timelines, congressional opposition, state-level resistance in potential test locations, and risks of spurring arms competition with Russia and China. These factors sustain trader consensus on low probabilities of any test by late 2026, with scheduled oversight hearings and appropriations decisions as potential near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing in response to foreign programs initiated policy review, yet implementation remains stalled amid technical, legal, and diplomatic constraints. As of March 2026, officials confirmed ongoing assessments without a decision on underground explosive tests, consistent with the 1992 moratorium and stockpile stewardship program that has sustained reliability without explosions. Significant barriers include multi-year site readiness timelines, congressional opposition, state-level resistance in potential test locations, and risks of spurring arms competition with Russia and China. These factors sustain trader consensus on low probabilities of any test by late 2026, with scheduled oversight hearings and appropriations decisions as potential near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$770,068Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing in response to foreign programs initiated policy review, yet implementation remains stalled amid technical, legal, and diplomatic constraints. As of March 2026, officials confirmed ongoing assessments without a decision on underground explosive tests, consistent with the 1992 moratorium and stockpile stewardship program that has sustained reliability without explosions. Significant barriers include multi-year site readiness timelines, congressional opposition, state-level resistance in potential test locations, and risks of spurring arms competition with Russia and China. These factors sustain trader consensus on low probabilities of any test by late 2026, with scheduled oversight hearings and appropriations decisions as potential near-term catalysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання