President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the current market focus, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that any program would involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months would be required to prepare for an underground explosive test, while diplomatic pushback, including Russian reciprocal warnings and UN concerns over the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm, has reinforced caution. Ongoing budget requests for stockpile research and periodic accusations regarding foreign compliance have sustained trader attention without altering the absence of explosive tests to date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$795,359 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
6%
$795,359 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,628 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$76,920 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the current market focus, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that any program would involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months would be required to prepare for an underground explosive test, while diplomatic pushback, including Russian reciprocal warnings and UN concerns over the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm, has reinforced caution. Ongoing budget requests for stockpile research and periodic accusations regarding foreign compliance have sustained trader attention without altering the absence of explosive tests to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$795,359Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the current market focus, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that any program would involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months would be required to prepare for an underground explosive test, while diplomatic pushback, including Russian reciprocal warnings and UN concerns over the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm, has reinforced caution. Ongoing budget requests for stockpile research and periodic accusations regarding foreign compliance have sustained trader attention without altering the absence of explosive tests to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$795,359Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the current market focus, citing alleged foreign low-yield activities. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that any program would involve subcritical or hydrodynamic experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program in place since 1992. Technical assessments indicate 24–36 months would be required to prepare for an underground explosive test, while diplomatic pushback, including Russian reciprocal warnings and UN concerns over the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm, has reinforced caution. Ongoing budget requests for stockpile research and periodic accusations regarding foreign compliance have sustained trader attention without altering the absence of explosive tests to date.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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