Russia maintains a long-standing moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1990 and has repeatedly stated it will not resume unless the United States does so first. Recent U.S. policy signals under President Trump, including 2025 directives to prepare for resumed testing on an equal basis with adversaries, prompted Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in September 2026 to confirm implementation work on President Putin’s related Security Council order. Moscow has conducted extensive non-explosive exercises, including strategic missile launches, Sarmat ICBM preparations, and large-scale emergency drills at nuclear facilities, while activity continues at the Novaya Zemlya test site. Trader assessments of near-term Russian explosive testing reflect these conditional doctrinal commitments, ongoing U.S.-Russia frictions tied to Ukraine, and the absence of confirmed detonation activity despite heightened rhetoric. Scheduled diplomatic or arms-control developments could alter the trajectory.