Market experiences a brief spike in probability (from 1% to 39%) possibly reflecting short-term speculation or rumors, but no verifiable nuclear test news emerges, and the

June 30, 2026 surges to 39%38%

Market experiences a brief spike in probability (from 1% to 39%) possibly reflecting short-term speculation or rumors, but no verifiable nuclear test news emerges, and the

Russia conducts missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka, including launches of nuclear-capable missiles ahead of Victory Day celebrations

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

These tests involved missile launches capable of carrying nuclear warheads but did not include any nuclear detonations, signaling escalation but not a nuclear test.

Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Russian Ministry of Defence announces ballistic missile tests at the Kura range, signaling military strength but not involving nuclear detonations, maintaining low market expectations for a nuclear test

Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the

Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests ahead of Victory Day Parade but does not conduct any nuclear detonations, demonstrating military capability without crossing the nuclear test threshold, which likely kept the market probability low

Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the

December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%

Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook

U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium

December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%

U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium

Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%

Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.

IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about

September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%

IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.

The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test

December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%

The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test

The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty reiterates warnings that a nuclear test by Russia or the U.S.

would lead to other nations following suit, reinforcing the global norm against testing and reducing market expectations for a Russian test

UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint

UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint

Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests,

Rafael Grossi, head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty, warns that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of tests, emphasizing the high stakes and deterring Russia from testing

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warns that renewed nuclear testing by the U.S.

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%

or Russia would trigger global proliferation, highlighting Russia’s 2023 revocation of its nuclear test ban treaty ratification and raising international alarm about potential tests

Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%

Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”

Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported

U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

This official assessment highlighted Russia’s struggles with new nuclear system tests, reducing market confidence in an imminent nuclear test.

U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reports multiple failed tests of new Russian nuclear weapons systems and ongoing modernization efforts without confirmed nuclear detonations, reducing market confidence in an imminent Russian nuclear test

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announces Moscow will continue notifying the U.S.

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

of missile launches despite suspending the last nuclear arms control treaty, signaling ongoing restraint in nuclear activities despite treaty tensions

U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.