Russia has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, fostering trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid post-New START expiration in February 2026 that ended U.S.-Russia strategic limits. November 2025 saw Defense Minister Belousov propose—and President Putin approve—immediate preparations for full-scale tests at the Arctic site, responding to U.S. resumption signals, but no detonations have followed. On April 2, strategic forces conducted Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, emphasizing nuclear-capable readiness without explosions. Planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year are expected to be non-nuclear; Ukraine escalation, sanctions, or diplomatic breakthroughs could influence sentiment ahead of quarterly deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$1,344,168 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026
3%
30 вересня 2026 року
6%
31 грудня 2026 року
12%
$1,344,168 Обс.
30 червня 2026
$5,716 Обс.
3%
30 вересня 2026 року
$1,720 Обс.
6%
31 грудня 2026 року
$12,159 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, fostering trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid post-New START expiration in February 2026 that ended U.S.-Russia strategic limits. November 2025 saw Defense Minister Belousov propose—and President Putin approve—immediate preparations for full-scale tests at the Arctic site, responding to U.S. resumption signals, but no detonations have followed. On April 2, strategic forces conducted Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, emphasizing nuclear-capable readiness without explosions. Planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year are expected to be non-nuclear; Ukraine escalation, sanctions, or diplomatic breakthroughs could influence sentiment ahead of quarterly deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,344,168Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, fostering trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid post-New START expiration in February 2026 that ended U.S.-Russia strategic limits. November 2025 saw Defense Minister Belousov propose—and President Putin approve—immediate preparations for full-scale tests at the Arctic site, responding to U.S. resumption signals, but no detonations have followed. On April 2, strategic forces conducted Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, emphasizing nuclear-capable readiness without explosions. Planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year are expected to be non-nuclear; Ukraine escalation, sanctions, or diplomatic breakthroughs could influence sentiment ahead of quarterly deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,344,168Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has adhered to a nuclear testing moratorium since its last detonation in 1990 at Novaya Zemlya, despite not ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, fostering trader consensus on low near-term probabilities amid post-New START expiration in February 2026 that ended U.S.-Russia strategic limits. November 2025 saw Defense Minister Belousov propose—and President Putin approve—immediate preparations for full-scale tests at the Arctic site, responding to U.S. resumption signals, but no detonations have followed. On April 2, strategic forces conducted Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, emphasizing nuclear-capable readiness without explosions. Planned solid-fuel ICBM flight tests later this year are expected to be non-nuclear; Ukraine escalation, sanctions, or diplomatic breakthroughs could influence sentiment ahead of quarterly deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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