Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$5,974,340 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026
<1%
30 вересня 2026 року
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
11%
$5,974,340 Обс.
30 червня 2026
$4,608,591 Обс.
<1%
30 вересня 2026 року
$20,174 Обс.
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
$21,002 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,974,340Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$5,974,340Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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