Redistricting that merged much of the former Ninth District into the Eighteenth has forced a May 26 Democratic runoff between sitting Representatives Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither reached a majority in the March 3 primary. Recent University of Houston polling shows Menefee ahead by seven points, while first-quarter fundraising reports indicate he raised roughly twice as much as Green. These factors have shaped trader consensus reflected in current market pricing, with Menefee positioned as the clear leader and Green trailing. Minor candidates received negligible support in the initial round and hold little influence over the runoff outcome. The contest remains open until votes are cast, though scheduled debates and voter turnout in Harris and Fort Bend counties could still shift momentum.