NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMarch 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$431,721 Обс.
$431,721 Обс.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
No
1.10–1.14ºC
No
1.15–1.19ºC
No
1.20–1.24ºC
No
1.25–1.29ºC
Yes
>1.29ºC
No
1.25–1.29ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.10–1.14ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
$431,721 Обс.
$431,721 Обс.
Apr 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$60,531 Обс.
No
1.10–1.14ºC
$54,323 Обс.
No
1.15–1.19ºC
$84,918 Обс.
No
1.20–1.24ºC
$67,818 Обс.
No
1.25–1.29ºC
$61,129 Обс.
Yes
>1.29ºC
$103,001 Обс.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$431,721Дата завершення
Apr 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$431,721Дата завершення
Apr 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GISTEMP v4 dataset confirms March 2026's global land-ocean temperature index at 1.27°C above the 1951-1980 baseline, securing trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the 1.25–1.29ºC outcome. This value, derived from integrated weather station, ship, and buoy observations with satellite adjustments, underscores persistent anthropogenic warming trends, with contributions from elevated ocean heat content and land surface anomalies in Eurasia and the North Atlantic amid transitioning ENSO-neutral conditions post-2025 El Niño. March 2026 ties for the second-warmest March on record, aligning with a ~0.9°C rise since the baseline. Rare post-release revisions to raw data could theoretically shift the precise figure by up to 0.05°C, though such changes seldom alter bin assignments. Final updates expected later in 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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