Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.92°C in mid-June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This adds roughly 0.1–0.2°C to surface anomalies atop the long-term anthropogenic trend from greenhouse gas accumulation. Recent monthly data, including February 2026’s 1.18°C anomaly above the 20th-century average, and model consensus from NOAA and WMO indicate June 2026 is likely to fall near or slightly below the recent multi-year peak. Trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C bin aligns with these observed ocean heat content increases and forecast guidance, while the narrow spread of alternative outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in exact monthly realization pending final observational data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
<1.10ºC 4.0%
$13,876 Обс.
$13,876 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
<1.10ºC 4.0%
$13,876 Обс.
$13,876 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Обс.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Обс.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Обс.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,574 Обс.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Обс.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.92°C in mid-June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This adds roughly 0.1–0.2°C to surface anomalies atop the long-term anthropogenic trend from greenhouse gas accumulation. Recent monthly data, including February 2026’s 1.18°C anomaly above the 20th-century average, and model consensus from NOAA and WMO indicate June 2026 is likely to fall near or slightly below the recent multi-year peak. Trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C bin aligns with these observed ocean heat content increases and forecast guidance, while the narrow spread of alternative outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in exact monthly realization pending final observational data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,876Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.92°C in mid-June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This adds roughly 0.1–0.2°C to surface anomalies atop the long-term anthropogenic trend from greenhouse gas accumulation. Recent monthly data, including February 2026’s 1.18°C anomaly above the 20th-century average, and model consensus from NOAA and WMO indicate June 2026 is likely to fall near or slightly below the recent multi-year peak. Trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C bin aligns with these observed ocean heat content increases and forecast guidance, while the narrow spread of alternative outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in exact monthly realization pending final observational data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$13,876Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.92°C in mid-June 2026 and expected to strengthen, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating global temperatures. This adds roughly 0.1–0.2°C to surface anomalies atop the long-term anthropogenic trend from greenhouse gas accumulation. Recent monthly data, including February 2026’s 1.18°C anomaly above the 20th-century average, and model consensus from NOAA and WMO indicate June 2026 is likely to fall near or slightly below the recent multi-year peak. Trader consensus reflected in the 67% implied probability for the 1.15–1.19°C bin aligns with these observed ocean heat content increases and forecast guidance, while the narrow spread of alternative outcomes underscores remaining uncertainty in exact monthly realization pending final observational data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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