Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%
$13,978 Обс.
$13,978 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%
$13,978 Обс.
$13,978 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Обс.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Обс.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Обс.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,675 Обс.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Обс.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,978Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$13,978Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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