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icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Jun 30

Jun 30

1.15–1.19ºC 67%

1.10–1.14ºC 22%

1.20–1.24ºC 10%

1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%

Polymarket

$13,978 Обс.

1.15–1.19ºC 67%

1.10–1.14ºC 22%

1.20–1.24ºC 10%

1.25–1.29ºC 2.9%

Polymarket

$13,978 Обс.

<1.10ºC

$511 Обс.

2%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,965 Обс.

22%

1.15–1.19ºC

$466 Обс.

67%

1.20–1.24ºC

$3,675 Обс.

10%

1.25–1.29ºC

$1,749 Обс.

3%

>1.29ºC

$1,612 Обс.

2%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$13,978
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data place May 2026 global surface temperatures at 1.07 °C above the 20th-century average according to NOAA, continuing the elevated baseline established by record warmth in 2023–2024. An emerging El Niño, confirmed by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with Niño-3.4 indices already positive and expected to intensify through northern summer, is providing additional oceanic heat release that typically elevates June anomalies. Long-term anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases maintains the underlying trend, while the absence of a strong La Niña or major volcanic cooling leaves little downward pressure. Model consensus and early June sea-surface temperature patterns support anomalies clustering in the 1.15–1.19 °C range versus the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s dominant implied probability; final June values will be refined by mid-July releases from NOAA and NASA.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$13,978
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1.15–1.19ºC» з 67%, далі «1.10–1.14ºC» з 22%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» згенерував $14K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку May 26, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» — «1.15–1.19ºC» з 67%. Наступний — «1.10–1.14ºC» з 22%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.