Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including operations in June 2025 and February-March 2026 targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan enrichment facilities, have substantially extended Iran's estimated breakout timeline. U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that Tehran would now require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a nuclear weapon if it chose that path, with some analyses placing the delay at two years or more due to damaged infrastructure and unresolved questions over highly enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing diplomatic contacts through Pakistani mediators and internal Iranian debates over enrichment limits have further shaped trader views, reinforcing consensus that a completed device before 2027 remains unlikely absent major reversals.