Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, including after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 and amid IAEA inspection disputes, with parliament advancing related legislation as recently as May 2026. No withdrawal notice has been issued, however, and Iran continues to operate under the treaty while engaging in indirect diplomatic channels. Traders assign only an 8.4% chance of exit before 2027 because such steps require formal three-month advance notification, carry significant diplomatic isolation risks, and have historically served more as leverage than implemented policy. With limited months remaining in the window, absent a major escalation that overrides these constraints, the consensus reflects the low probability of completing the legal process in time.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
8% шанс
$359,144 Обс.
$359,144 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
8% шанс
$359,144 Обс.
$359,144 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, including after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 and amid IAEA inspection disputes, with parliament advancing related legislation as recently as May 2026. No withdrawal notice has been issued, however, and Iran continues to operate under the treaty while engaging in indirect diplomatic channels. Traders assign only an 8.4% chance of exit before 2027 because such steps require formal three-month advance notification, carry significant diplomatic isolation risks, and have historically served more as leverage than implemented policy. With limited months remaining in the window, absent a major escalation that overrides these constraints, the consensus reflects the low probability of completing the legal process in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$359,144Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, including after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 and amid IAEA inspection disputes, with parliament advancing related legislation as recently as May 2026. No withdrawal notice has been issued, however, and Iran continues to operate under the treaty while engaging in indirect diplomatic channels. Traders assign only an 8.4% chance of exit before 2027 because such steps require formal three-month advance notification, carry significant diplomatic isolation risks, and have historically served more as leverage than implemented policy. With limited months remaining in the window, absent a major escalation that overrides these constraints, the consensus reflects the low probability of completing the legal process in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$359,144Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since 2025, including after U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 and amid IAEA inspection disputes, with parliament advancing related legislation as recently as May 2026. No withdrawal notice has been issued, however, and Iran continues to operate under the treaty while engaging in indirect diplomatic channels. Traders assign only an 8.4% chance of exit before 2027 because such steps require formal three-month advance notification, carry significant diplomatic isolation risks, and have historically served more as leverage than implemented policy. With limited months remaining in the window, absent a major escalation that overrides these constraints, the consensus reflects the low probability of completing the legal process in time.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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