Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) drives the Democratic Party's 93.5% implied probability in CA-36, a solidly Democratic district with a D+21 partisan lean where he won re-election in 2024 by 68.7% against the same Republican challenger, Melissa Toomim. Lieu holds a massive fundraising edge with over $1 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing primary opponents ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic based on consistent landslide margins and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 68%-29%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since candidate filings closed March 6. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sending two Republicans to the November general or a late scandal eroding Lieu's support, though historical precedents make these unlikely in this coastal Los Angeles stronghold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-36 House Election Winner
CA-36 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,379 Обс.
94%
Republican Party
$1,324 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) drives the Democratic Party's 93.5% implied probability in CA-36, a solidly Democratic district with a D+21 partisan lean where he won re-election in 2024 by 68.7% against the same Republican challenger, Melissa Toomim. Lieu holds a massive fundraising edge with over $1 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing primary opponents ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic based on consistent landslide margins and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 68%-29%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since candidate filings closed March 6. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sending two Republicans to the November general or a late scandal eroding Lieu's support, though historical precedents make these unlikely in this coastal Los Angeles stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,704Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) drives the Democratic Party's 93.5% implied probability in CA-36, a solidly Democratic district with a D+21 partisan lean where he won re-election in 2024 by 68.7% against the same Republican challenger, Melissa Toomim. Lieu holds a massive fundraising edge with over $1 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing primary opponents ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic based on consistent landslide margins and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 68%-29%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since candidate filings closed March 6. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sending two Republicans to the November general or a late scandal eroding Lieu's support, though historical precedents make these unlikely in this coastal Los Angeles stronghold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$3,704Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Ted Lieu (D) drives the Democratic Party's 93.5% implied probability in CA-36, a solidly Democratic district with a D+21 partisan lean where he won re-election in 2024 by 68.7% against the same Republican challenger, Melissa Toomim. Lieu holds a massive fundraising edge with over $1 million cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing primary opponents ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, while Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic based on consistent landslide margins and 2024 presidential results favoring Kamala Harris 68%-29%. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days since candidate filings closed March 6. Realistic challenges include a primary upset sending two Republicans to the November general or a late scandal eroding Lieu's support, though historical precedents make these unlikely in this coastal Los Angeles stronghold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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