Recent generic ballot polls, such as Marist's late April survey showing Democrats at 55% to Republicans' 45% and Emerson's early May results with a 10-point Democratic edge, underpin trader consensus pricing a blue wave at 73.5% probability for the November 2026 midterms. Under President Trump's second term, historical midterm dynamics favor the opposition party, which typically nets House losses exceeding 20 seats, amplified by sagging approval ratings on the economy amid new CNN polling. Democrats overperformed in 2025-2026 special elections, bolstering momentum in battleground districts and vulnerable Senate seats like those in Michigan and elsewhere, though primaries through summer could shift paths to House and Senate control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$42,863 Обс.
$42,863 Обс.
Nov 30, 2026
$42,863 Обс.
$42,863 Обс.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, such as Marist's late April survey showing Democrats at 55% to Republicans' 45% and Emerson's early May results with a 10-point Democratic edge, underpin trader consensus pricing a blue wave at 73.5% probability for the November 2026 midterms. Under President Trump's second term, historical midterm dynamics favor the opposition party, which typically nets House losses exceeding 20 seats, amplified by sagging approval ratings on the economy amid new CNN polling. Democrats overperformed in 2025-2026 special elections, bolstering momentum in battleground districts and vulnerable Senate seats like those in Michigan and elsewhere, though primaries through summer could shift paths to House and Senate control.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$42,863Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent generic ballot polls, such as Marist's late April survey showing Democrats at 55% to Republicans' 45% and Emerson's early May results with a 10-point Democratic edge, underpin trader consensus pricing a blue wave at 73.5% probability for the November 2026 midterms. Under President Trump's second term, historical midterm dynamics favor the opposition party, which typically nets House losses exceeding 20 seats, amplified by sagging approval ratings on the economy amid new CNN polling. Democrats overperformed in 2025-2026 special elections, bolstering momentum in battleground districts and vulnerable Senate seats like those in Michigan and elsewhere, though primaries through summer could shift paths to House and Senate control.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Обсяг
$42,863Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent generic ballot polls, such as Marist's late April survey showing Democrats at 55% to Republicans' 45% and Emerson's early May results with a 10-point Democratic edge, underpin trader consensus pricing a blue wave at 73.5% probability for the November 2026 midterms. Under President Trump's second term, historical midterm dynamics favor the opposition party, which typically nets House losses exceeding 20 seats, amplified by sagging approval ratings on the economy amid new CNN polling. Democrats overperformed in 2025-2026 special elections, bolstering momentum in battleground districts and vulnerable Senate seats like those in Michigan and elsewhere, though primaries through summer could shift paths to House and Senate control.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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