Redistricting merged the seats of Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim into California's 40th district, setting up a November 3 general election between the two after the June 2 top-two primary. Calvert's stronger primary performance, with roughly 35% of the vote to Kim's 21% amid split Democratic support, has anchored trader consensus around his higher implied probability. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter familiarity in the Orange County and Riverside areas further support Calvert's lead in market pricing. Both candidates' records on local issues and turnout dynamics among Republican voters remain key variables that could shift probabilities before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)
CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
71%
Young Kim
23%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Ken Calvert
$862 Обс.
71%
Young Kim
$753 Обс.
23%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting merged the seats of Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim into California's 40th district, setting up a November 3 general election between the two after the June 2 top-two primary. Calvert's stronger primary performance, with roughly 35% of the vote to Kim's 21% amid split Democratic support, has anchored trader consensus around his higher implied probability. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter familiarity in the Orange County and Riverside areas further support Calvert's lead in market pricing. Both candidates' records on local issues and turnout dynamics among Republican voters remain key variables that could shift probabilities before election day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,615Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting merged the seats of Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim into California's 40th district, setting up a November 3 general election between the two after the June 2 top-two primary. Calvert's stronger primary performance, with roughly 35% of the vote to Kim's 21% amid split Democratic support, has anchored trader consensus around his higher implied probability. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter familiarity in the Orange County and Riverside areas further support Calvert's lead in market pricing. Both candidates' records on local issues and turnout dynamics among Republican voters remain key variables that could shift probabilities before election day.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$1,615Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Redistricting merged the seats of Republican incumbents Ken Calvert and Young Kim into California's 40th district, setting up a November 3 general election between the two after the June 2 top-two primary. Calvert's stronger primary performance, with roughly 35% of the vote to Kim's 21% amid split Democratic support, has anchored trader consensus around his higher implied probability. Fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter familiarity in the Orange County and Riverside areas further support Calvert's lead in market pricing. Both candidates' records on local issues and turnout dynamics among Republican voters remain key variables that could shift probabilities before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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