Trump's January nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, formalized in March and advancing toward an April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, has solidified trader consensus around Warsh at over 80% implied probability across rate outcomes, reflecting his frontrunner status amid limited viable alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. The heavy skew toward rates above 2.5% under Warsh (71.5%) stems from recent energy shocks—oil surges tied to the Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflict—reinforcing inflation risks that echo Warsh's hawkish 2008 stance prioritizing price stability over cuts. With federal funds steady at 3.5-3.75% per March FOMC and markets pricing minimal easing, traders anticipate Warsh maintaining elevated rates post-May confirmation, though Democratic stalls and GOP reservations add uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHer Fed Başkanı altında öngörülen Fed oranı
Her Fed Başkanı altında öngörülen Fed oranı
Kevin Warsh & Oran > %2,5 72%
Kevin Warsh & Oran ≤ %2,5 10%
Rick Rieder & Faiz > %2,5 6.3%
Diğer 2.9%
$107,941 Hac.
$107,941 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Kevin Warsh & Oran > %2,5
72%
Kevin Warsh & Oran ≤ %2,5
10%
Rick Rieder & Faiz > %2,5
6%
Diğer
3%
Rick Rieder & Faiz ≤ %2.5
2%
Kevin Hassett & Faiz ≤ %2,5
1%
Christopher Waller & Faiz ≤ %2,5
1%
Christopher Waller & Faiz > %2,5
<1%
Kevin Hassett & Faiz > %2,5
<1%
Kevin Warsh & Oran > %2,5 72%
Kevin Warsh & Oran ≤ %2,5 10%
Rick Rieder & Faiz > %2,5 6.3%
Diğer 2.9%
$107,941 Hac.
$107,941 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Kevin Warsh & Oran > %2,5
$6,664 Hac.
72%
Kevin Warsh & Oran ≤ %2,5
$5,517 Hac.
10%
Rick Rieder & Faiz > %2,5
$22,894 Hac.
6%
Diğer
$15,254 Hac.
3%
Rick Rieder & Faiz ≤ %2.5
$24,771 Hac.
2%
Kevin Hassett & Faiz ≤ %2,5
$11,767 Hac.
1%
Christopher Waller & Faiz ≤ %2,5
$6,159 Hac.
1%
Christopher Waller & Faiz > %2,5
$7,652 Hac.
<1%
Kevin Hassett & Faiz > %2,5
$7,261 Hac.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's January nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, formalized in March and advancing toward an April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, has solidified trader consensus around Warsh at over 80% implied probability across rate outcomes, reflecting his frontrunner status amid limited viable alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. The heavy skew toward rates above 2.5% under Warsh (71.5%) stems from recent energy shocks—oil surges tied to the Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflict—reinforcing inflation risks that echo Warsh's hawkish 2008 stance prioritizing price stability over cuts. With federal funds steady at 3.5-3.75% per March FOMC and markets pricing minimal easing, traders anticipate Warsh maintaining elevated rates post-May confirmation, though Democratic stalls and GOP reservations add uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Hacim
$107,941Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's January nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, formalized in March and advancing toward an April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, has solidified trader consensus around Warsh at over 80% implied probability across rate outcomes, reflecting his frontrunner status amid limited viable alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. The heavy skew toward rates above 2.5% under Warsh (71.5%) stems from recent energy shocks—oil surges tied to the Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflict—reinforcing inflation risks that echo Warsh's hawkish 2008 stance prioritizing price stability over cuts. With federal funds steady at 3.5-3.75% per March FOMC and markets pricing minimal easing, traders anticipate Warsh maintaining elevated rates post-May confirmation, though Democratic stalls and GOP reservations add uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Hacim
$107,941Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trump's January nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, formalized in March and advancing toward an April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, has solidified trader consensus around Warsh at over 80% implied probability across rate outcomes, reflecting his frontrunner status amid limited viable alternatives like Rick Rieder or Kevin Hassett. The heavy skew toward rates above 2.5% under Warsh (71.5%) stems from recent energy shocks—oil surges tied to the Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iran conflict—reinforcing inflation risks that echo Warsh's hawkish 2008 stance prioritizing price stability over cuts. With federal funds steady at 3.5-3.75% per March FOMC and markets pricing minimal easing, traders anticipate Warsh maintaining elevated rates post-May confirmation, though Democratic stalls and GOP reservations add uncertainty.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
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