**Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 84% for the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market because none of the specified trigger events appear likely to materialize before December 31.** The resolution criteria require Trump’s removal from office, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s ouster, a direct U.S. invasion of Iran or collapse of the Iranian regime, a Republican Senate supermajority trifecta, Russian incursion into NATO territory, Trump acquiring Greenland, extreme Bitcoin moves, Jeffrey Epstein’s survival, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0 earthquake or VEI-6+ volcano. As of late September 2026, ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and Ukraine-Russia fighting have produced diplomatic overtures and limited withdrawals rather than escalation to listed thresholds. No leadership changes or territorial invasions matching the criteria have occurred, and scheduled elections or summits have not altered these trajectories. This stability underpins the elevated "Yes" pricing, though late-year developments could still shift odds.