Trader consensus on a low 27-28% chance of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption—stems from USGS seismic catalogs and global volcanological records showing these events occur roughly once per decade and less than once per century, respectively. No such events have occurred through late May 2026, and monitoring networks report no elevated precursor signals such as unusual seismic swarms or deformation at high-risk sites like the Cascadia subduction zone. With seven months remaining, baseline probabilities remain anchored to long-term averages absent any major tectonic or magmatic shifts that could alter the outlook before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$220,804 Vol.
$220,804 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a low 27-28% chance of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption—stems from USGS seismic catalogs and global volcanological records showing these events occur roughly once per decade and less than once per century, respectively. No such events have occurred through late May 2026, and monitoring networks report no elevated precursor signals such as unusual seismic swarms or deformation at high-risk sites like the Cascadia subduction zone. With seven months remaining, baseline probabilities remain anchored to long-term averages absent any major tectonic or magmatic shifts that could alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$220,804Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a low 27-28% chance of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption—stems from USGS seismic catalogs and global volcanological records showing these events occur roughly once per decade and less than once per century, respectively. No such events have occurred through late May 2026, and monitoring networks report no elevated precursor signals such as unusual seismic swarms or deformation at high-risk sites like the Cascadia subduction zone. With seven months remaining, baseline probabilities remain anchored to long-term averages absent any major tectonic or magmatic shifts that could alter the outlook before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$220,804Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a low 27-28% chance of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026—defined as a 9.0+ magnitude earthquake or VEI 6+ volcanic eruption—stems from USGS seismic catalogs and global volcanological records showing these events occur roughly once per decade and less than once per century, respectively. No such events have occurred through late May 2026, and monitoring networks report no elevated precursor signals such as unusual seismic swarms or deformation at high-risk sites like the Cascadia subduction zone. With seven months remaining, baseline probabilities remain anchored to long-term averages absent any major tectonic or magmatic shifts that could alter the outlook before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong