Netanyahu's active campaign as incumbent prime minister, including recent security-focused messaging and warnings of potential threats ahead of the October 27 Knesset vote, underpins the strong trader consensus against him withdrawing. Recent developments such as Supreme Court rulings on party eligibility, polling showing his bloc near or short of a majority, and his strategy of seeking a stalemate to serve as caretaker leader reinforce expectations he will remain in the race. Israeli electoral rules and his Likud party's structure further reduce the likelihood of an early exit. Late developments that could still shift dynamics include sudden health concerns or major legal rulings tied to ongoing proceedings.