**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026 have proceeded without a formal congressional declaration of war, keeping trader-implied probabilities for such an outcome by year-end extremely low.** US forces, often alongside Israel, have conducted repeated strikes on Iranian targets, including responses to threats in the Strait of Hormuz, while operating under presidential authority and War Powers notifications to Congress. A June memorandum of understanding briefly paused major hostilities but collapsed amid renewed attacks, sanctions enforcement, and stalled talks on nuclear issues, shipping access, and economic relief. As of early September 2026, the conflict continues through targeted operations and economic pressure rather than escalation to a declared state of war. Formal declarations have not occurred since World War II, and current dynamics favor continued use of existing executive and legislative tools over new congressional action. Key near-term variables include any shift in strike intensity, Hormuz negotiations, or congressional initiatives that could alter the trajectory.