Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally—and the absence of any qualifying quake since late December 2025. Recent seismic activity, including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20 that prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a 1% short-term risk of M8.0 along the northern Pacific coast due to stress changes in the Japan Trench, has nudged Yes odds higher amid subduction zone unrest, alongside prior M7.4s in Indonesia and M7.5 in Tonga. However, USGS monitoring shows no escalation to M8+ thresholds, with probabilities anchored in historical patterns and operational forecasts emphasizing inherent seismic uncertainty; key updates expected from continuous real-time data feeds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$54,617 Vol.
$54,617 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$54,617 Vol.
$54,617 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally—and the absence of any qualifying quake since late December 2025. Recent seismic activity, including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20 that prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a 1% short-term risk of M8.0 along the northern Pacific coast due to stress changes in the Japan Trench, has nudged Yes odds higher amid subduction zone unrest, alongside prior M7.4s in Indonesia and M7.5 in Tonga. However, USGS monitoring shows no escalation to M8+ thresholds, with probabilities anchored in historical patterns and operational forecasts emphasizing inherent seismic uncertainty; key updates expected from continuous real-time data feeds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$54,617Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally—and the absence of any qualifying quake since late December 2025. Recent seismic activity, including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20 that prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a 1% short-term risk of M8.0 along the northern Pacific coast due to stress changes in the Japan Trench, has nudged Yes odds higher amid subduction zone unrest, alongside prior M7.4s in Indonesia and M7.5 in Tonga. However, USGS monitoring shows no escalation to M8+ thresholds, with probabilities anchored in historical patterns and operational forecasts emphasizing inherent seismic uncertainty; key updates expected from continuous real-time data feeds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$54,617Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74.5% implied probability for no magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, per USGS data, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging fewer than one per year globally—and the absence of any qualifying quake since late December 2025. Recent seismic activity, including a M7.4 offshore Japan on April 20 that prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a 1% short-term risk of M8.0 along the northern Pacific coast due to stress changes in the Japan Trench, has nudged Yes odds higher amid subduction zone unrest, alongside prior M7.4s in Indonesia and M7.5 in Tonga. However, USGS monitoring shows no escalation to M8+ thresholds, with probabilities anchored in historical patterns and operational forecasts emphasizing inherent seismic uncertainty; key updates expected from continuous real-time data feeds.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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