Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, with only five recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global seismic swarms, foreshocks, or strain accumulation signaling an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Japan's April 2026 advisory after a M7.7 quake raised Nankai megaquake odds to about 1% short-term from a baseline 0.1%, but absolute risk remains negligible per official models. Realistic challenges include unexpected fault failure in high-stress zones, with USGS real-time data and aftershock reports key to watch through resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, with only five recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global seismic swarms, foreshocks, or strain accumulation signaling an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Japan's April 2026 advisory after a M7.7 quake raised Nankai megaquake odds to about 1% short-term from a baseline 0.1%, but absolute risk remains negligible per official models. Realistic challenges include unexpected fault failure in high-stress zones, with USGS real-time data and aftershock reports key to watch through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$66,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, with only five recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global seismic swarms, foreshocks, or strain accumulation signaling an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Japan's April 2026 advisory after a M7.7 quake raised Nankai megaquake odds to about 1% short-term from a baseline 0.1%, but absolute risk remains negligible per official models. Realistic challenges include unexpected fault failure in high-stress zones, with USGS real-time data and aftershock reports key to watch through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$66,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability for no megaquake—a magnitude 9.0 or greater event worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes, with only five recorded since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. USGS monitoring shows no unusual global seismic swarms, foreshocks, or strain accumulation signaling an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Japan's April 2026 advisory after a M7.7 quake raised Nankai megaquake odds to about 1% short-term from a baseline 0.1%, but absolute risk remains negligible per official models. Realistic challenges include unexpected fault failure in high-stress zones, with USGS real-time data and aftershock reports key to watch through resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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