No known near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies or ESA’s risk list carry trajectories capable of delivering a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in the remaining weeks of 2026. Current Sentry and Scout monitoring, combined with updated orbital data through mid-October, show only distant safe approaches by small asteroids, consistent with the low historical rate of multi-kiloton bolides. Events at this energy threshold—detectable via infrasound or satellite sensors—occur irregularly every several years on average, placing any single calendar year well below 30 percent probability. No confirmed 5 kt-scale fireball has registered in NASA’s JPL repository so far this year, and recent tiny impactors such as 2026 RW1 remained far below threshold. Traders therefore assign roughly 79 percent odds to “No,” while acknowledging residual uncertainty from the undetected population of meter-scale objects.