**Trader consensus centers on 66-70% turnout because advance polling and historical patterns point to a result in that narrow band.** Advance voting reached 25.59% of eligible voters, modestly above the 24.8% recorded in 2022, while overall participation on election day itself aligned with the province’s recent baseline near 66%. A multi-party contest focused on cost-of-living, housing, and health-care concerns rather than a high-stakes sovereignty debate produced steady but not exceptional mobilization. Low youth engagement and limited Indigenous participation further capped upside, keeping probabilities concentrated in the 66-70% interval. Late swings in turnout would require unusually strong last-minute mobilization or weather-driven suppression, both viewed as low-probability events by traders.