**Traders assign a 94.7% implied probability that NATO will not invoke Article 5 before 2027 because Russia has avoided any unambiguous armed attack on alliance territory that would meet the threshold for collective defense.** Ongoing hybrid operations—including drone and airspace incursions, sabotage, and cyberattacks—have prompted consultations and reinforcements but remain below the level requiring formal invocation, consistent with NATO’s calibrated responses to date. Intelligence assessments from European services and U.S. reports highlight risks of limited Russian probes, particularly in the Baltics, potentially timed around 2027 amid the Ukraine conflict and shifting U.S. policy emphasis on European burden-sharing. However, NATO has expanded eastern-flank battlegroups, advanced defense plans, and reaffirmed Article 5 commitments at the 2026 Ankara summit while increasing European spending targets. Russia’s primary military focus remains Ukraine, with no verified conventional strikes on NATO soil in recent months. These factors sustain the market’s strong consensus against near-term invocation.