US allies face significant technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers to acquiring nuclear weapons on such a compressed timeline. Despite ongoing debates over extended deterrence credibility, public support in places like South Korea, and US civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with Riyadh and Seoul finalized in 2026, these steps center on enrichment studies and naval reactors rather than weapons programs. No ally has withdrawn from the NPT, launched a declared breakout effort, or demonstrated the infrastructure for rapid fissile material production and weaponization. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.8% because historical proliferation timelines, alliance commitments, and verification regimes make independent arsenals before 2027 highly improbable absent unforeseen escalation.