Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at an 80% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Ann Wagner's entrenched position in a Republican-leaning suburban St. Louis district that supported Donald Trump by about 8 points in 2024 and has delivered GOP victories for 33 straight years. A March court ruling upheld Missouri's new Republican-drawn congressional map, providing a statewide boost to incumbents like Wagner. Democrats, led by veteran challenger Fred Wellman—who received a VoteVets endorsement last December and DCCC targeting since April 2025—highlighted a recent FocalData poll showing them up 4 points, but traders remain skeptical amid limited public polling and strong incumbency advantages ahead of August 4 primaries and the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMO-02 House Election Winner
MO-02 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
80%
Democratic Party
20%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$2,938 ปริมาณ
80%
Democratic Party
$2,081 ปริมาณ
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at an 80% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Ann Wagner's entrenched position in a Republican-leaning suburban St. Louis district that supported Donald Trump by about 8 points in 2024 and has delivered GOP victories for 33 straight years. A March court ruling upheld Missouri's new Republican-drawn congressional map, providing a statewide boost to incumbents like Wagner. Democrats, led by veteran challenger Fred Wellman—who received a VoteVets endorsement last December and DCCC targeting since April 2025—highlighted a recent FocalData poll showing them up 4 points, but traders remain skeptical amid limited public polling and strong incumbency advantages ahead of August 4 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,019วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at an 80% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Ann Wagner's entrenched position in a Republican-leaning suburban St. Louis district that supported Donald Trump by about 8 points in 2024 and has delivered GOP victories for 33 straight years. A March court ruling upheld Missouri's new Republican-drawn congressional map, providing a statewide boost to incumbents like Wagner. Democrats, led by veteran challenger Fred Wellman—who received a VoteVets endorsement last December and DCCC targeting since April 2025—highlighted a recent FocalData poll showing them up 4 points, but traders remain skeptical amid limited public polling and strong incumbency advantages ahead of August 4 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,019วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices the Republican Party at an 80% implied probability to win Missouri's 2nd Congressional District House seat, reflecting incumbent Ann Wagner's entrenched position in a Republican-leaning suburban St. Louis district that supported Donald Trump by about 8 points in 2024 and has delivered GOP victories for 33 straight years. A March court ruling upheld Missouri's new Republican-drawn congressional map, providing a statewide boost to incumbents like Wagner. Democrats, led by veteran challenger Fred Wellman—who received a VoteVets endorsement last December and DCCC targeting since April 2025—highlighted a recent FocalData poll showing them up 4 points, but traders remain skeptical amid limited public polling and strong incumbency advantages ahead of August 4 primaries and the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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