**US federal prosecutors are pursuing Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, weapons, and newly added conspiracy-to-torture charges stemming from his tenure as Venezuelan president.** Captured by US forces in Caracas in January 2026 and held in Brooklyn pending a June 2027 trial, Maduro and his wife have pleaded not guilty while mounting immunity and jurisdictional challenges, with key motions set for November hearings. Conviction on the full indictment carries mandatory minimums that could exceed 50 years. The leading “no prison time” outcome at 54.5% reflects trader assessment of dismissal risk or acquittal amid novel legal issues, while the 29.5% probability on 60+ years captures the high statutory exposure if the case proceeds to conviction. Recent superseding indictment adding torture allegations has reinforced the upper-end sentencing scenario without materially shifting near-term resolution prospects.