US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his subsequent federal prosecution on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and torture conspiracy charges form the primary driver of market pricing. The June 2027 trial date, recent reassignment after the presiding judge’s death, and ongoing legal motions create substantial uncertainty over final sentencing outcomes. Interim Venezuelan leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has pursued phased US-backed transition talks that include economic stabilization and potential reconciliation elements, raising prospects for diplomatic resolutions that could limit or eliminate prison time. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, followed by sentences exceeding 60 years, reflecting competing scenarios of plea arrangements, immunity arguments, or conviction on the full indictment.