Following Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election, reflecting Illinois' entrenched Democratic dominance driven by Chicago's overwhelming voter margins and the GOP's statewide winless streak since 1998. Stratton's statewide name recognition and progressive backing, contrasted with a fragmented Republican primary yielding lesser-known nominees like Don Tracy, reinforce this positioning amid absent early general election polls showing competitiveness. While commanding, odds could shift via a national Republican midterm wave, major Democratic scandal, or depressed urban turnout, though historical base rates favor safe Democratic holds in such open races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIllinois Senate Election Winner
Illinois Senate Election Winner
$22,022 ปริมาณ
$22,022 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
$22,022 ปริมาณ
$22,022 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$11,259 ปริมาณ
93%
Republican
$10,764 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election, reflecting Illinois' entrenched Democratic dominance driven by Chicago's overwhelming voter margins and the GOP's statewide winless streak since 1998. Stratton's statewide name recognition and progressive backing, contrasted with a fragmented Republican primary yielding lesser-known nominees like Don Tracy, reinforce this positioning amid absent early general election polls showing competitiveness. While commanding, odds could shift via a national Republican midterm wave, major Democratic scandal, or depressed urban turnout, though historical base rates favor safe Democratic holds in such open races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,022วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election, reflecting Illinois' entrenched Democratic dominance driven by Chicago's overwhelming voter margins and the GOP's statewide winless streak since 1998. Stratton's statewide name recognition and progressive backing, contrasted with a fragmented Republican primary yielding lesser-known nominees like Don Tracy, reinforce this positioning amid absent early general election polls showing competitiveness. While commanding, odds could shift via a national Republican midterm wave, major Democratic scandal, or depressed urban turnout, though historical base rates favor safe Democratic holds in such open races.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$22,022วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin, trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic nominee at 92.5% implied probability for the November 3 general election, reflecting Illinois' entrenched Democratic dominance driven by Chicago's overwhelming voter margins and the GOP's statewide winless streak since 1998. Stratton's statewide name recognition and progressive backing, contrasted with a fragmented Republican primary yielding lesser-known nominees like Don Tracy, reinforce this positioning amid absent early general election polls showing competitiveness. While commanding, odds could shift via a national Republican midterm wave, major Democratic scandal, or depressed urban turnout, though historical base rates favor safe Democratic holds in such open races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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