Trader consensus favors Republicans at 81.5% implied probability to retain the Kansas U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1932—and incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's established incumbency advantage from his 2020 victory. A fragmented Democratic primary field, with eight lesser-known candidates including recent entrant state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout challenger capable of breaking through in this deep-red battleground. Last week's Tavern Research poll briefly spotlighted independent Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed it as an outlier, noting Marshall's 54-46 lead in a hypothetical partisan ballot test amid strong 2024 Trump margins. Kansas' August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$19,546 ปริมาณ
$19,546 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
82%
Democrat
18%
$19,546 ปริมาณ
$19,546 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$10,919 ปริมาณ
82%
Democrat
$8,627 ปริมาณ
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans at 81.5% implied probability to retain the Kansas U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1932—and incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's established incumbency advantage from his 2020 victory. A fragmented Democratic primary field, with eight lesser-known candidates including recent entrant state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout challenger capable of breaking through in this deep-red battleground. Last week's Tavern Research poll briefly spotlighted independent Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed it as an outlier, noting Marshall's 54-46 lead in a hypothetical partisan ballot test amid strong 2024 Trump margins. Kansas' August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,546วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans at 81.5% implied probability to retain the Kansas U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1932—and incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's established incumbency advantage from his 2020 victory. A fragmented Democratic primary field, with eight lesser-known candidates including recent entrant state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout challenger capable of breaking through in this deep-red battleground. Last week's Tavern Research poll briefly spotlighted independent Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed it as an outlier, noting Marshall's 54-46 lead in a hypothetical partisan ballot test amid strong 2024 Trump margins. Kansas' August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,546วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Republicans at 81.5% implied probability to retain the Kansas U.S. Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1932—and incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall's established incumbency advantage from his 2020 victory. A fragmented Democratic primary field, with eight lesser-known candidates including recent entrant state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, lacks a standout challenger capable of breaking through in this deep-red battleground. Last week's Tavern Research poll briefly spotlighted independent Adam Hamilton edging Marshall 51-49%, but traders dismissed it as an outlier, noting Marshall's 54-46 lead in a hypothetical partisan ballot test amid strong 2024 Trump margins. Kansas' August 4 primaries loom as the next catalyst.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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