Morena holds an 87% implied probability in the market due to consistent national polling leads of 35-46% for the 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, well ahead of PAN, PRI, and MC. Recent surveys from September and early October 2026 confirm this edge, with the party’s support stable or slightly rising since the 2024 vote. Morena’s October 10 National Council meeting formalized alliance guidelines with PVEM and PT for coordinated candidacies across states, reinforcing its organizational position ahead of the contest. Opposition parties remain fragmented, with no unified front emerging to close the gap. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and polling trends as the primary drivers of the outcome.