Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 99.4% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets, underscored by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3. Minutes released April 8 highlighted patience despite geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, while March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge—though core rose a tame 0.2% monthly—aligning with transitory pressures rather than broad reacceleration. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected retail sales or manufacturing PMIs this week prompting hawkish repricing, or escalating oil shocks tilting toward a 25 basis point hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนเมษายน?
การตัดสินใจของเฟดในเดือนเมษายน?
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 99.4%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 25 จุดฐาน <1%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$112,612,147 ปริมาณ
$112,612,147 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
<1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
99%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 25 จุดฐาน
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง 99.4%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 25 จุดฐาน <1%
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน <1%
$112,612,147 ปริมาณ
$112,612,147 ปริมาณ
Apr 29, 2026
ลดลงมากกว่า 50 จุดพื้นฐาน
$42,036,794 ปริมาณ
<1%
ลดลง 25 จุดพื้นฐาน
$22,048,469 ปริมาณ
<1%
ไม่มีการเปลี่ยนแปลง
$22,535,307 ปริมาณ
99%
ปรับขึ้นมากกว่า 25 จุดฐาน
$25,991,945 ปริมาณ
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 99.4% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets, underscored by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3. Minutes released April 8 highlighted patience despite geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, while March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge—though core rose a tame 0.2% monthly—aligning with transitory pressures rather than broad reacceleration. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected retail sales or manufacturing PMIs this week prompting hawkish repricing, or escalating oil shocks tilting toward a 25 basis point hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,612,147วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 99.4% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets, underscored by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3. Minutes released April 8 highlighted patience despite geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, while March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge—though core rose a tame 0.2% monthly—aligning with transitory pressures rather than broad reacceleration. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected retail sales or manufacturing PMIs this week prompting hawkish repricing, or escalating oil shocks tilting toward a 25 basis point hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,612,147วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket trader consensus assigns a 99.4% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 3½–3¾ percent amid solid GDP growth and resilient labor markets, underscored by March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs on April 3. Minutes released April 8 highlighted patience despite geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, while March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy surge—though core rose a tame 0.2% monthly—aligning with transitory pressures rather than broad reacceleration. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected retail sales or manufacturing PMIs this week prompting hawkish repricing, or escalating oil shocks tilting toward a 25 basis point hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย