No catalogued near-Earth objects tracked by NASA’s CNEOS or ESA’s risk list carry meaningful impact probability for 2026, keeping trader consensus heavily weighted toward “No” at 82.5%. Meter-scale bolides capable of 5-kiloton airbursts remain statistically infrequent, occurring roughly once per year on average according to long-term fireball records, with most events either undetected or falling below the energy threshold. Recent small impacts, such as the September 2026 RW1 object and earlier confirmed cases, released far less energy and followed normal discovery patterns. Ongoing surveys continue to refine the undetected population estimate without identifying any 2026 threats, while the shrinking calendar window further supports the market-implied odds.